Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 38.21%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 37.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.25%) and 0-2 (5.55%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.