Eredivisie | Gameweek 33

May 21, 2023 at 1.30pm UK

Amsterdam Arena

Ajax
3 - 1
Utrecht

Bergwijn (20'), Brobbey (68'), Klaassen (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Douvikas (49')
Douvikas (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and FC Utrecht, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Groningen 2-3 Ajax
Tuesday, May 16 at 2pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

FC Utrecht

All competitions

Last Game: Utrecht 2-0 RKC Waalwijk
Saturday, May 13 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

With Utrecht having built up a head of steam of late, this could prove to be a tricky encounter for Ajax when they are under pressure. However, rediscovering their goalscoring touch last time out can only benefit them, and we feel that the home side should run out the victors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 69.34%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 13.79%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 3-1 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (3.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	FC Utrecht
69.34% ( 0.55)	16.88% ( -0.14)	13.79% ( -0.4)

Both teams to score 59.89% (

-0.63)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.34% (

-0.27)

30.66% (

0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.02% (

-0.32)

51.98% (

0.33)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92% (

0.05)

8% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.8% (

0.12)

28.21% (

-0.11)

FC Utrecht Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.1% (

-0.71)

34.9% (

0.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.36% (

-0.76)

71.64% (

0.77)

Score Analysis

Ajax 69.34%

FC Utrecht 13.79%

Draw 16.88%

Ajax	Draw	FC Utrecht
2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 7.89% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 7.5% ( 0.16) 1-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 4.98% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 2.62% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.06) 5-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.03) 4-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.89% Total : 69.34%	1-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.27% Total : 16.88%	1-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 2.94% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.29% Total : 13.79%