Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 39.25%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 37.17% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.79%) and 0-2 (5.45%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.