Europa League

Europa League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Mar 9, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
2 - 0
Real Sociedad

(Roma win 2-0 on aggregate)

El Shaarawy (13'), Kumbulla (87')
Matic (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Illarramendi (68'), Zubeldia (71'), Gorosabel (80'), Zubimendi (85'), Oyarzabal (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Roma and Real Sociedad, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Roma 1-0 Juventus
Sunday, March 5 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Sociedad

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Real Sociedad 0-0 Cadiz
Friday, March 3 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Roma 1-0 Real Sociedad

Roma have won only two of their last 15 competitive games against Spanish sides - losing 10 times in the process - but Jose Mourinho has changed the culture of the club. The veteran coach has claimed victory in 14 of his 16 Europa League home matches and knows how to get the job done - with La Real's recent lack of goals also helping his cause. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 45.52%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 26.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.17%) and 2-1 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.95%), while for a Real Sociedad win it was 0-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Real Sociedad
45.52% ( -0.08)	28.1% ( 0.01)	26.38% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 44.24% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.89% (

0.02)

61.11% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.92% (

0.02)

81.08% (

-0.01)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.14% (

-0.03)

26.85% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.84% (

-0.04)

62.16% (

0.04)

Real Sociedad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.49% (

0.08)

39.51% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.8% (

0.07)

76.2% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Roma 45.52%

Real Sociedad 26.38%

Draw 28.09%

Roma	Draw	Real Sociedad
1-0 @ 13.95% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.52% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.73% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.23% ( -0) Other @ 1.86% Total : 45.52%	1-1 @ 12.95% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.61% 2-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.58% Total : 28.09%	0-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.57% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.22% ( 0) Other @ 1.43% Total : 26.38%