Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 13, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Laugardalsvollur

Iceland
1 - 1
Luxembourg

Oskarsson (23')
Ingi Ingason (66'), Finnsson (75')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Rodrigues (46')
Mahmutovic (20'), Curci (44'), Martins Pereira (64'), Chanot (82'), Moris (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's European Championship qualifying clash between Iceland and Luxembourg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iceland

All competitions

Last Game: Iceland 1-0 Bosnia H'vina
Monday, September 11 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	6	24	18
2	Slovakia	6	6	13
3	Luxembourg	6	-9	10
4	Iceland	6	1	6
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	6	-4	6
6	Liechtenstein	6	-18	0

Luxembourg

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Portugal 9-0 Luxembourg
Monday, September 11 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	6	24	18
2	Slovakia	6	6	13
3	Luxembourg	6	-9	10
4	Iceland	6	1	6
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	6	-4	6
6	Liechtenstein	6	-18	0

We said: Iceland 1-1 Luxembourg

This is a really difficult match to call, as it is tough to know exactly what to expect from each side. It would not be a surprise to see a home or indeed an away win, but we just have a feeling that a cagey affair will end with the spoils being shared. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 33.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Iceland	Draw	Luxembourg
38.34% ( -8.46)	28.35% ( 1.81)	33.32% ( 6.65)

Both teams to score 46.54% (

-2.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.3% (

-4.18)

59.71% (

4.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.99% (

-3.31)

80.02% (

3.31)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.85% (

-6.44)

30.15% (

6.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.7% (

-8.46)

66.31% (

8.46)

Luxembourg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.62% (

2.8)

33.38% (

-2.8)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30% (

2.96)

70.01% (

-2.96)

Score Analysis

Iceland 38.33%

Luxembourg 33.31%

Draw 28.35%

Iceland	Draw	Luxembourg
1-0 @ 12.06% ( -0.28) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( -1.1) 2-0 @ 7.23% ( -1.65) 3-1 @ 3.17% ( -1.16) 3-0 @ 2.89% ( -1.37) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.46) 4-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.61) Other @ 2.35% Total : 38.33%	1-1 @ 13.24% ( 0.69) 0-0 @ 10.06% ( 1.48) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.35%	0-1 @ 11.04% ( 2.32) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.88) 0-2 @ 6.06% ( 1.63) 1-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.5) 0-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.71) 2-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.48% Total : 33.31%