Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 16, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadions Skonto

Latvia
2 - 3
Turkey

Emsis (51'), Tobers (90+4')
Oss (34'), Emsis (52'), Tobers (66')
Emsis (82')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Bardakci (22'), Under (61'), Kahveci (90+5')
Celik (32'), Kadioglu (41')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Latvia and Turkey, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Latvia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Wales 1-0 Latvia
Tuesday, March 28 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia	2	2	4
2	Wales	2	1	4
3	Turkey	2	-1	3
4	Armenia	1	-1	0
5	Latvia	1	-1	0

Turkey

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Turkey 0-2 Croatia
Tuesday, March 28 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia	2	2	4
2	Wales	2	1	4
3	Turkey	2	-1	3
4	Armenia	1	-1	0
5	Latvia	1	-1	0

Only a 99th-minute winning goal the last time both nations met prevented a sixth straight draw between Latvia and Turkey. That result seemed anomalous, and a score draw could be on the cards in Friday's encounter at Skonto Stadium. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 64.41%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 15.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.21%) and 1-2 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.72%), while for a Latvia win it was 1-0 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Turkey would win this match.

Result
Latvia	Draw	Turkey
15.15% ( -0.04)	20.44% ( 0)	64.41% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 50.33% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.3% (

-0.11)

44.7% (

0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.94% (

-0.1)

67.06% (

0.1)

Latvia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.95% (

-0.12)

42.05% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.52% (

-0.1)

78.48% (

0.09)

Turkey Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.85% (

-0.03)

13.14% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.18% (

-0.05)

39.81% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Latvia 15.15%

Turkey 64.39%

Draw 20.44%

Latvia	Draw	Turkey
1-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 2.07% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.63% Total : 15.15%	1-1 @ 9.72% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.93% Total : 20.44%	0-2 @ 11.37% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 9.86% ( -0) 0-3 @ 7.7% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 6.67% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 3.91% ( 0) 1-4 @ 3.38% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.59% 2-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.37% ( -0) Other @ 2.99% Total : 64.39%