FA Cup

FA Cup | First Round

Nov 4, 2023 at 3pm UK

Kingsmeadow

AFC Wimbledon
5 - 1
Cheltenham

Al-Hamadi (23'), Tilley (45+2', 61'), Davison (65'), Lemonheigh-Evans (70')
Little (59')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Street (76')
Thompson (59'), Williams (90+1')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between AFC Wimbledon and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions

Last Game: Morecambe 4-1 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Cheltenham Town

All competitions

Last Game: Port Vale 1-2 Cheltenham
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Cheltenham Town

This is a difficult match to call, and it would not be a surprise to see either of these sides advance to the next stage. Cheltenham are playing much better at the moment, though, and we are tipping the League One outfit to edge a close contest in order to progress to the next round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 50.13%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.97%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Cheltenham Town
50.13% ( 0)	24.85% ( -0)	25.02% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 52.33% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.93% (

-0)

50.06% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.96% (

-0)

72.03% (

-0)

AFC Wimbledon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.01% (

-0)

19.98% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.84% (

52.16% (

-0.01)

Cheltenham Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.39% (

-0.01)

34.6% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.67% (

-0.01)

71.32% (

Score Analysis

AFC Wimbledon 50.12%

Cheltenham Town 25.02%

Draw 24.84%

AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Cheltenham Town
1-0 @ 11.13% 2-1 @ 9.51% 2-0 @ 8.97% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.11% 3-0 @ 4.81% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.71% 4-1 @ 2.06% 4-0 @ 1.94% 4-2 @ 1.09% Other @ 2.8% Total : 50.12%	1-1 @ 11.81% 0-0 @ 6.91% 2-2 @ 5.05% 3-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.84%	0-1 @ 7.34% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.27% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.89% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.22% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.79% 0-3 @ 1.38% ( -0) Other @ 2.14% Total : 25.02%