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FA Cup
AFC Wimbledon
FA Cup | First Round
Nov 4, 2023 at 3pm UK
Kingsmeadow
Cheltenham Town

AFC Wimbledon
5 - 1
Cheltenham

Al-Hamadi (23'), Tilley (45+2', 61'), Davison (65'), Lemonheigh-Evans (70')
Little (59')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Street (76')
Thompson (59'), Williams (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between AFC Wimbledon and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions
Last Game: Morecambe 4-1 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League Two

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
Last Game: Port Vale 1-2 Cheltenham
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League One

We said: AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Cheltenham Town

 This is a difficult match to call, and it would not be a surprise to see either of these sides advance to the next stage. Cheltenham are playing much better at the moment, though, and we are tipping the League One outfit to edge a close contest in order to progress to the next round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 50.13%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.97%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC WimbledonDrawCheltenham Town
50.13% (0.0030000000000001 0) 24.85% (-0.00099999999999767 -0) 25.02% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Both teams to score 52.33% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.93% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)50.06% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.96% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)72.03% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.01% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)19.98% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.84% (0.0020000000000024 0)52.16% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.39% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)34.6% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)71.32% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Score Analysis
    AFC Wimbledon 50.12%
    Cheltenham Town 25.02%
    Draw 24.84%
AFC WimbledonDrawCheltenham Town
1-0 @ 11.13%
2-1 @ 9.51%
2-0 @ 8.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 5.11%
3-0 @ 4.81% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 2.71%
4-1 @ 2.06%
4-0 @ 1.94%
4-2 @ 1.09%
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 50.12%
1-1 @ 11.81%
0-0 @ 6.91%
2-2 @ 5.05%
3-3 @ 0.96%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.84%
0-1 @ 7.34% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-2 @ 6.27% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 3.89% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 2.22% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.79%
0-3 @ 1.38% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 25.02%

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Cheltenham

AFC Wimbledon
50.0%
Draw
12.5%
Cheltenham Town
37.5%
8
Head to Head
Mar 19, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 39
Cheltenham
3-1
AFC Wimbledon
Wright (81'), Lloyd (83'), May (90+2')
Raglan (17'), Williams (63')
Rudoni (26')
Hartigan (86')
Feb 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 17
AFC Wimbledon
2-2
Cheltenham
Assal (8'), Cosgrove (80')
Brown (45+2'), Marsh (61'), Cosgrove (90+6')
May (31', 34')
Sercombe (16'), Raglan (26'), Hutchinson (66')
> Preview
Dec 4, 2021 3pm
Second Round
AFC Wimbledon
4-3
Cheltenham
Assal (36', 55'), Palmer (41', 65')
McCormick (80'), Woodyard (87')
May (2'), Williams (73'), Heneghan (81' og.)
Hussey (80'), Norton (89'), Horton (90+6')
> Preview
May 2, 2015 3pm
AFC Wimbledon
1-1
Cheltenham
Smith (44')
Berry (25')
Berry (19'), Brown (51'), Braham-Barrett (93')
Oct 4, 2014 3pm
Cheltenham
1-1
AFC Wimbledon
Taylor (8')
Barrett (41')
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