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FA Cup
Oxford United
FA Cup | Second Round
Nov 26, 2022 at 3pm UK
Kassam Stadium
Exeter City

Oxford Utd
4 - 1
Exeter

Taylor (9'), Bodin (79', 88'), Brannagan (85')
McGuane (51'), Taylor (74')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Jay (89')
Hartridge (22'), Sparkes (37'), Key (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Oxford United and Exeter City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Oxford United

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Oxford Utd 1-1 Forest Green
Saturday, November 19 at 3pm in League One

Exeter City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Exeter 0-2 Ipswich
Saturday, November 19 at 12pm in League One

We said: Oxford United 1-2 Exeter City

 Oxford are six unbeaten in League One but have failed to earn enough maximums to be competing at the top end of the third tier and looked very unconvincing against Forest Green last time out. Exeter have shown they possess the firepower to comfortably survive this season and it could be a case of Brown's brilliance securing them passage to the third round of the FA Cup on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 48.37%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 27.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.

Result
Oxford UnitedDrawExeter City
48.37% (0.015999999999998 0.02) 24.22% (-0.004999999999999 -0) 27.4% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 56.48% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.41% (0.015000000000001 0.02)45.59% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.08% (0.014000000000003 0.01)67.91% (-0.012999999999991 -0.01)
Oxford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.06% (0.013999999999996 0.01)18.94% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.55% (0.021999999999998 0.02)50.45% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.68% (0.0019999999999953 0)30.32% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.5% (0.0019999999999953 0)66.5%
Score Analysis
    Oxford United 48.37%
    Exeter City 27.4%
    Draw 24.22%
Oxford UnitedDrawExeter City
1-0 @ 9.55% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
2-1 @ 9.49% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 7.95% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 5.26% (0.0029999999999992 0)
3-0 @ 4.41% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 3.14% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 2.19% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 1.83% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.31% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.24%
Total : 48.37%
1-1 @ 11.4%
0-0 @ 5.74% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-2 @ 5.66% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 1.25% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.22%
0-1 @ 6.85% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 6.8% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 4.09% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 2.71% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 2.25%
0-3 @ 1.63% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 27.4%

How you voted: Oxford Utd vs Exeter

Oxford United
47.1%
Draw
29.4%
Exeter City
23.5%
17
Head to Head
Oct 15, 2022 3pm
Exeter
2-4
Oxford Utd
Brown (65'), Cox (90+2')
Collins (11')
Brannagan (12'), Long (31'), Joseph (44', 54')
Dec 4, 2019 7pm
Exeter
0-0
Oxford Utd
 Exeter win 3-0 on penalties

Tillson (30')

Mackie (61')
Feb 23, 2016 7.45pm
Exeter
1-4
Oxford Utd
Nicholls (77')
Tillson (45')
Dunkley (8'), Bowery (41', 59'), MacDonald (62')
Dec 26, 2015 3pm
Oxford Utd
3-0
Exeter
Lundstram (48'), Baldock (67'), Sercombe (90')
Dunkley (36'), MacDonald (42'), Baldock (43')

Nicholls (42'), Tillson (43'), Holmes (72'), Watkins (77')
Jan 24, 2015 3pm
Oxford Utd
2-2
Exeter
Hylton (18'), Roberts (92')
Davies (37'), Nicholls (88')
Noble (44')
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