Freiburg could confirm a remarkable Champions League qualification when they host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on Saturday.
The hosts climbed into the top four after coming out on top in a seven-goal thriller last weekend, whilst the visitors dropped points against bottom of the table to fall out of the top six ahead of the penultimate weekend in Germany's top flight.
Match preview
© Reuters
Freiburg have certainly thrilled spectators as the surprise package for much of the campaign so far, but after playing out encounters containing 13 goals across their last two outings, they have certainly provided another form of entertainment recently.
After being on the wrong end of a last-minute equaliser at home to Borussia Monchengladbach a week earlier, Saturday's hosts bounced back to come out on top at fellow European hopefuls Hoffenheim last weekend.
Roland Sallai got the ball rolling midway through the first half, but after an even opening 45, Christian Streich's side had to settle for a 1-1 scoreline heading into the break.
However, despite falling behind just four minutes after the restart, Christian Gunter, Lucas Holer and Woo-Yeong Jeong netted in a clinical second-half display to provide a crucial three points in Freiburg's season.
RB Leipzig's surprise defeat to Gladbach at Borussia-Park later in matchday 32 means that Freiburg occupy fourth spot heading into their final home game of the season at the Europa-Park Stadion.
Just one point is keeping Streich's men in the final Champions League qualification spot however, so any slip-up on Saturday, or in next weekend's tough trip to third-placed Bayer Leverkusen, could well prove costly.
A raucous home atmosphere will be roaring on the Black Forest side against Union, when a first-ever qualification for Europe's grand stage could be confirmed depending on results elsewhere too, and if their last two fixtures are anything to go by, there could well be plenty of entertainment on display too.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, Union fell behind in the race for continental qualification after unexpectedly being held by already-relegated Greuther Furth last weekend.
Union's home record has been exceptional over the last couple of seasons, but their bottom-of-the-table opponents stood firm to restrict Die Eisernen to very little in front of goal.
After falling behind during an extremely disappointing opening 45, Urs Fischer's side improved after the interval, but Sven Michel's equaliser just two minutes after coming off the bench was all that Union could manage.
A fourth-straight victory for FC Koln elsewhere on the weekend saw Union drop down into seventh ahead of matchday 33 this weekend, meaning their destiny would be now out of their control.
However, Freiburg's participation in the DFB-Pokal final later this month means that another continental qualification spot has been opened up in seventh place.
With only nine of their last 26 Bundesliga wins coming on their travels though, Fischer's men could be up against it to confirm their place above Hoffenheim in the top seven when they travel to the Europa-Park Stadion on Saturday.
However, after recording successive wins away from home at city rivals Hertha Berlin, and at top-four hopefuls Leipzig, Union have certainly improved on their travels in recent weeks, and a similar kind of performance to either of those two successes will be required if they are to grind out a positive result at Freiburg.
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Despite having his summer transfer to Borussia Dortmund confirmed earlier this week, Nico Schlotterbeck will continue in the Freiburg back four on Saturday, having impressed significantly in the Bundesliga's second-best defence this season.
Yannik Keitel, Kevin Schade and Noah Weisshaupt remain injury absentees for Streich to contend with, whilst Manuel Gulde's ankle injury picked up in last weekend's victory could force a change.
Streich opted for a change to a 3-4-2-1 formation at Hoffenheim, but Gulde's injury means the hosts are likely to revert back to their recent 4-2-3-1 setup, as they did when Nils Petersen came off the bench to replace the defender at half time last time out.
As for the visitors, the ankle injury picked up by defender Dominique Heintz last time out could well have ended his season.
The continued illness suffered by Timo Baumgartl labels the fellow defender a doubt as well, to leave Fischer short of options for his three-man defence.
Andras Schafer is the only other concern though, with the midfielder potentially missing out once more due to COVID-19.
After earning the number one spot in goal recently, Frederik Ronnow is expected to start ahead of previous first-choice Andreas Luthe once again.
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Kubler, Lienhart, N Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Eggestein, Hofler; Sallai, Holer, Grifo; Petersen
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Ronnow; Jaeckel, Knoche, Baumgartl; Trimmel, Haraguchi, Khedira, Promel, Giesselmann; Awoniyi, Becker
We say: Freiburg 2-1 Union Berlin
With both of these sides in strong form in recent weeks, it looks like it will be an even contest on Saturday, with it potentially yielding plenty of goals.
The raucous atmosphere at the Europa-Park Stadion is likely to play its part though, and with Union noticeably different on their travels despite recent away results, we are predicting a home win here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 48.44%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 27.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-2 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Freiburg win with a probability of 48.44%. A win for Union Berlin has a probability of 27.64% and a draw has a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline is Freiburg 1-1 Union Berlin with a probability of 11.19% and the second most likely scoreline is Freiburg 2-1 Union Berlin with a probability of 9.49%.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
