Luis Enrique's side most recently saw off Kosovo 2-0 to cement their second-placed position, while the hosts went down 2-0 to Sweden to leave their qualification hopes hanging in the balance.

Match preview

John van 't Schip in charge of Greece in September 2020 © Reuters

Any hopes of Greece ensuring automatic qualification to their third World Cup Finals since 2010 have been dashed, with John van 't Schip's side no match for group leaders Sweden during their sixth match of Qualifying Group B.

Emil Forsberg and Alexander Isak both struck in the second half of that 2-0 win for the Scandinavian outfit last month, but having beaten Georgia 2-0 three days before, Greece are still in with an outside shot of booking their plane tickets to Qatar.

The third-placed hosts can no longer usurp Sweden and are therefore fighting for their right to nab second spot ahead of Spain and a place in the playoffs, but they currently sit four points adrift of La Roja and will be sent packing with anything less than a win here.

Defeat to Sweden was only their second loss from their last 15 games across all competitions, and it has been over two years since Greece last suffered defeat of any kind on home soil, having made a habit of winning one then drawing one on familiar territory - most recently sinking Sweden 2-1 in September.

While their solid home form serves as reason for optimism, Van 't Schip's side have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 before Spain's bright, youthful attacking forces pay a visit to the historic city of Athens.

Spain coach Luis Enrique on June 28, 2021 © Reuters

While their rivals were busy boosting their bids for World Cup 2022 qualification, Spain plied their trade in the Nations League Finals last month, firstly seeing off the threat of Italy thanks to Ferran Torres's heroics before doing battle with France in the showpiece event.

However, La Roja fell short in the final as Karim Benzema and Kylian Mbappe cancelled out Mikel Oyarzabal's opener to leave Spain ruing what could have been, with the 2010 world champions still waiting for their first major trophy since their Euro 2012 triumph.

Spain are in the unfamiliar position of playing catch-up to Sweden as they sit two points behind the group leaders, and even if Luis Enrique's side suffer a calamitous collapse and drop out of the top two, their Nations League ranking will still see them advance to the playoffs.

Enrique will not be considering such a scenario, though, as Spain seek their third World Cup Qualifying win on the bounce before their final-day meeting with Sweden, who will be expecting to sweep aside Georgia this week.

Defeat in Sweden incredibly represents Spain's only World Cup Qualifying loss away from home since 1993, but they were held to a 1-1 draw by Greece back in March's Qualifying battle and can take nothing for granted at the Olympic Stadium.

Greece World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:

Greece form (all competitions):

Spain World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:

Spain form (all competitions):

Team News

Spain's Ferran Torres celebrates scoring their first goal against Italy in the UEFA Nations League on October 6, 2021 © Reuters

Greece have two suspensions to work around for this contest, with Pantelis Chatzidiakos seeing red against Sweden while captain Anastasios Bakasetas collected his second booking of qualification in that defeat.

With Dinos Mavropanos also not involved in November's fixtures, Van 't Schip could turn to the uncapped Dimitris Goutas, with the centre-back boasting four goals in this season's Super Lig already.

Petros Mantalos is likely to deputise in the hole as Bakasetas serves his suspension, while Kostas Tsimikas may also be required as an emergency centre-back in the hosts' back three.

Meanwhile, Spain have lost Torres to a metatarsal fracture sustained during the Nations League Finals, and the Manchester City man is one of several forwards watching on from home alongside Ansu Fati, Gerard Moreno, Yeremi Pino and Mikel Oyarzabal.

Eric Garcia has also been forced to pull out through injury as Enrique works around a worrying list of absentees, but Alvaro Morata is back fit and ready to lead the line with support from Pablo Sarabia and Dani Olmo.

Pau Torres and Aymeric Laporte should pair up in defence with Garcia out of contention, while Unai Simon is expected to fend off competition from David de Gea to take his place in goal.

Greece possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Androutsos, Goutas, Tzavellas, Tsimikas, Giannoulis; Bouchalakis, Siopis; Mantalos; Pavlidis, Masouras

Spain possible starting lineup:
Simon; Carvajal, P. Torres, Laporte, Alba; Koke, Busquets, Gavi; Sarabia, Morata, Olmo

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We say: Greece 0-1 Spain

Spain hardly have their first-choice XI available as injuries continue to deplete Enrique's ranks, but the visiting boss is at least working with arguably his best options in defence.

The hosts also have their own selection concerns due to suspension, and while Greece's home form is nothing to be sniffed at, we expect them to just fall short as La Roja eke out a crucial win.

Top tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 37.62%. A win for Greece had a probability of 35.36% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.16%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Greece win was 1-0 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Spain in this match.