With a postseason berth already assured, the Seattle Sounders can move a step closer to capturing first-place in the Western Conference with a win over the Houston Dynamo on Saturday from BBVA Compass Stadium in Texas.
Houston are winless in their last three encounters, while the Rave Green have won four in a row, currently sitting five points clear of Sporting Kansas City.
Match preview
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The Dynamo have five games left to try and salvage what has been another disappointing campaign that sees them in 12th in the Conference with 27 points.
It is hard to believe that only a few years ago, in 2017, this team was in the Western Conference final with a legitimate opportunity to capture a third MLS Cup.
Since falling 5-0 on aggregate, to Seattle in that two-leg affair things have only gone downhill for them, as they are in real danger of missing the playoffs for a fourth successive campaign.
Tab Ramos and his side are 11 points back of a postseason berth but have played more games (29) than any other team in the Western Conference, so if they want to keep their season going beyond November 3, it seems as though winning each of their remaining games may be their only option.
The players have put together some admirable efforts recently against Sporting Kansas City and the Vancouver Whitecaps, but there has not been enough quality on the field to earn them a lot of results.
Three of their final five matches will be at home, and they are unbeaten in two of their last three games played at BBVA Compass Stadium, scoring six goals over that time and putting up a pair of clean sheets.
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The Sounders have enjoyed plenty of success over the past few years and are putting together another impressive campaign.
While Seattle's ultimate goal will be to come away with the MLS Cup that eluded them in 2020, 2021 could go down as their best regular season.
Capturing the Supporters' Shield for the first time since 2014 may be out of reach, given how hot the New England Revolution have been, but for this team to be leading the Western Conference, with all of their injuries and formation changes, is a remarkable achievement.
Brian Schmetzer and his side have a desire to always want more, and it is that hunger and team culture that has kept them at the top of the standings throughout the year.
The Sounders have never missed the playoffs since entering the league, and that streak will continue thanks to their impressive 4-1 win over Vancouver in their Cascadia Cup tie last weekend.
No matter who Schmetzer throws out there, they seem to get the job done as 14 different players have goals this season, and they are the top defensive unit in the league at the moment, conceding only 23 times.
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Team News
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Dynamo midfielder Griffin Dorsey has been one of the few bright spots for this team in 2021, as the 22-year-old picked up his second assist of the season in their match against KC, moving him two back of Fafa Picault, who assisted on their second goal versus the Wizards, scored by Darwin Quintero.
Darwin Ceren, Maynor Figueroa, Boniek Garcia and Teenage Hadebe could all be back in the mix after being called up for international duty by their respective countries for World Cup 2022 qualifying.
Nico Lemoine is out with a right groin strain, Adam Lundqvist and Adalberto Carrasquilla are nursing lower-body injuries and Marko Maric is questionable with a left leg injury.
Leo Chu bagged his first strike for his new club as the Brazilian scored in the 90th minute for the Sounders off a nice set-up from Fredy Montero, who had two assists.
Will Bruin picked up the 74th goal of his career in their last match, putting him 10th among active players, while Kelyn Rowe was an essential provider in that game, with three assists, becoming only the fifth Rave Green player in club history to accomplish that feat and the first since Jordan Morris, who had three helpers in a game against the San Jose Earthquakes in 2020.
Morris remains sidelined with an ACL issue, Jordy Delem has an ACL tear, Nicolas Lodeiro is still recovering from right knee surgery, Brad Smith is out due to health and safety protocols and leading goalscorer Raul Ruidiaz is questionable with some pain in his left hamstring.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Nelson; Figueroa, Hadebe, Parker; Junqua, Ceren, Lassiter, Corona, Pasher; Picault, Quintero
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Frei; Andrade, O'Neill, Cissoko; Rowe, Bruin, Paulo, Leyva; Benezet, Montero; Chu
We say: Houston Dynamo 1-3 Seattle Sounders
For most teams losing a quality striker like Ruidiaz would be detrimental, but for Seattle, someone always seems to step up and put together an outstanding performance, and this side have shown that they have a variety of weapons that can beat you in many different ways.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 42.91%. A win for Seattle Sounders had a probability of 31.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Seattle Sounders win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.
