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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 70.15%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 11.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.26%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.83%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (4.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
Result | ||
Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
70.15% ( 0.43) | 18.6% ( -0.2) | 11.26% ( -0.22) |
Both teams to score 45.26% ( -0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.44% ( 0.32) | 45.56% ( -0.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.11% ( 0.31) | 67.89% ( -0.3) |
Bolton Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.22% ( 0.21) | 11.78% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.03% ( 0.45) | 36.97% ( -0.44) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.31% ( -0.18) | 48.7% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.26% ( -0.13) | 83.74% ( 0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
2-0 @ 13.12% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 12.26% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 9.36% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 6.73% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 5% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.14% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.23% Total : 70.14% | 1-1 @ 8.83% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 5.74% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.64% Total : 18.6% | 0-1 @ 4.13% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.47% Total : 11.26% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |