Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 51.67%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 23.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.58%) and 0-2 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 1-0 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.