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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 43.61%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
Result | ||
Gillingham | Draw | Newport County |
43.61% ( 0.11) | 25.45% ( 0.02) | 30.94% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 54.68% ( -0.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.02% ( -0.14) | 48.98% ( 0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.93% ( -0.13) | 71.06% ( 0.12) |
Gillingham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.59% ( -0.01) | 22.4% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.08% ( -0.01) | 55.91% ( 0) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.46% ( -0.17) | 29.54% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.44% ( -0.2) | 65.55% ( 0.2) |
Score Analysis |
Gillingham | Draw | Newport County |
1-0 @ 9.9% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.4% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.5% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.69% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.68% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0) Other @ 2.24% Total : 43.61% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.62% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.45% | 0-1 @ 8.07% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.45% Total : 30.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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