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Toulouse
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Ligue 1
Toulouse
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 19
Jan 28, 2024 at 4.05pm UK
Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
Lens logo

Toulouse
0 - 2
Lens


Martinez (37'), Donnum (40'), Nicolaisen (45'), Suazo (49')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Costa (42'), Diouf (55')
Said (36'), Haidara (83'), Sotoca (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Rouen 3-3 Toulouse (12-11 pen.)
Sunday, January 21 at 4.30pm in Coupe de France

Lens

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Lens 0-2 PSG
Sunday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

We said: Toulouse 1-2 Lens

 Lens have won five in a row against Toulouse, including in the reverse fixture back in September when Guilavogui scored a late winner, and they are now looking more like the side that gatecrashed the top three last season. Toulouse's confidence may be extremely fragile after being the slain giants in the cup last week, and their position in the Ligue 1 table does not lie, as another difficult fixture awaits. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 45.97%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.

Result
ToulouseDrawLens
28.34% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02) 25.69% (0.0010000000000012 0) 45.97% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 52.42% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.76% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)51.24% (0.013000000000005 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.92% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)73.07% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.44% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)32.56% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.9% (-0.026 -0.03)69.1% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Lens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.73% (0.0010000000000048 0)22.27% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.29% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)55.71% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Toulouse 28.34%
    Lens 45.97%
    Draw 25.69%
ToulouseDrawLens
1-0 @ 8.14%
2-1 @ 6.86% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-0 @ 4.56% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 2.56% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 1.93% (-0.002 -0)
3-0 @ 1.71% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 28.34%
1-1 @ 12.22%
0-0 @ 7.25% (0.0040000000000004 0)
2-2 @ 5.15% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 0.96% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.69%
0-1 @ 10.89% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 9.18% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 8.18% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.6% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-3 @ 4.1% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 2.58% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-4 @ 1.73%
0-4 @ 1.54% (0.002 0)
2-4 @ 0.97%
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 45.97%

How you voted: Toulouse vs Lens

Toulouse
30.3%
Draw
9.1%
Lens
60.6%
33
Head to Head
Sep 24, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 6
Lens
2-1
Toulouse
Said (45+2'), Guilavogui (84')
Gradit (54'), Wahi (75')
Gelabert (33')
Donnum (69')
> Preview
May 2, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 33
Toulouse
0-1
Lens
Openda (33')
> Preview
Oct 28, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 13
Lens
3-0
Toulouse
Openda (60', 86', 90+1')
> Preview
Mar 14, 2015 7pm
Lens
1-0
Toulouse
Chavarria (76')
Nomenjanahary (66'), Landre (90')

Grigore (67')
> Match Report
Oct 24, 2014 7.30pm
Toulouse
0-2
Lens

Grigore (90')
El Jadeyaoui (11'), Bourigeaud (27')
El Jadeyaoui (58'), Sylla (88')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG15114040122837
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1593324121230
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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