Minnesota United and Austin FC square off in the MLS on Wednesday looking to move closer to the top seven of the Western Conference standings.
Despite having improved of late, the two clubs currently sit in 11th and 10th place respectively, just above bottom side FC Dallas.
Match preview
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After last season's appearance in the Conference Finals, everything was set up for Minnesota to enjoy another strong campaign in MLS.
However, Adrian Heath witnessed his side lose their first four fixtures in the Western Conference, putting himself and his players under immediate pressure.
Minnesota have responded by collecting eight points from their next quartet of matches, putting the Loons within touching distance of moving into eighth position.
Nevertheless, Heath knows that there is much work ahead if the club are to reach the heights of 2020, particularly with his side currently possessing one of the worst attacking records in the division.
Only Robin Lod, currently missing from the squad while he represents Finland at Euro 2020, has netted more than once in MLS this season.
At a time when Minnesota head into this fixture on a four-match unbeaten streak, Austin have also come through their last three contests without suffering defeat.
Each of those contests ended in draws, but Josh Wolff will take the positives from securing points against Seattle Sounders, Sporting Kansas City and San Jose Earthquakes.
On the flipside, the newcomers to the division have not won since May 2, a period spanning six games since their 1-0 victory over their upcoming opponents.
While Wolff and his players can take confidence from that result, there will be an acknowledgement that Minnesota have improved significantly since their disappointing opening to the campaign.
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Team News
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Wolff could opt to select the same Austin XI after their stalemate with the Earthquakes.
Manny Perez, who is yet to make a start this season, is an alternative to Jared Stroud on the right-hand side of midfield.
Heath may consider bringing in a couple of fresh faces after Minnesota's 1-1 draw with FC Dallas at the weekend.
Emanuel Reynoso is expected to be recalled to the starting lineup, potentially at the expense of Jacori Hayes.
Ramon Abila may also return to the team in place of Adrien Hunou, while Franco Fragapane should keep his spot after netting on his debut.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Metanire, Boxall, Dibassy, Gasper; Hansen, Dotson, Trapp, Reynoso, Fragapane; Abila
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Lima, Cascante, Besler, Kolmanic; Fagundez, Ring, Pochettino; Perez, Dominguez, Gallagher
We say: Minnesota United 1-1 Austin FC
While both clubs will view this as an ideal opportunity to get another win on the board, we cannot ignore that they may prioritise avoiding defeat.
With that in mind, do not be surprised if a low-scoring draw plays out at the Allianz Field.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 63.96%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 15.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for an Austin FC win it was 0-1 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Minnesota United in this match.
