High-flying MK Dons host a revived Fleetwood Town at the Stadium MK in Tuesday's League One action, looking to continue their bright start to the new campaign.
The visitors have been on a good run of late themselves, recovering from a poor first few matches to work their way out of the relegation places in the third tier of English football.
Match preview
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Hopes may not have been too high at MK Dons at the beginning of this season when manager Russell Martin left to join Swansea City, after he oversaw a 13th-place finish in 2020-21.
However, the arrival of young head coach Liam Manning has been a revelation, and after his side lost to giants Sunderland just a day after he joined, he has failed to taste defeat since.
Five wins and two draws have followed in League One since, which includes a current three-game winning run after a win over fellow promotion-hopefuls Wycombe Wanderers on Saturday.
Despite winning just 1-0 at the weekend, the scoreline fails to reflect the pattern of the match as a whole. After Wycombe were reduced to 10 men shortly before half time, and Troy Parrott scored the resulting penalty, the Dons hammered their visitors and should have won by a far greater margin.
24 shots were attempted on the Wycombe goal and 79% possession was registered, which hovered around this level even before the one-man advantage was gained.
After taking four points off Fleetwood in the two meetings last season, Manning will be hopeful of his side's chances on Tuesday, although he will remain aware of the dangers of complacency against a side on the rise.
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As mentioned above, Fleetwood are in the middle of a revival of form as of late. After losing the opening four matches in all competitions, the Cod Army have won three and drawn three since.
In all fairness to Simon Grayson and his side, the three defeats at the beginning of the new League One season did come at the hands of a trio of promotion-chasing sides - Portsmouth, Lincoln City and Sheffield Wednesday.
Although the defence perhaps needs tightening up, with nine goals conceded in this five-match league revival, Fleetwood have been playing some entertaining football and the forward line, as well as the supporters in particular, will have enjoyed the 12 goals scored during this run.
The latest of these entertaining encounters was played at Cambridge United on Saturday, where James Hill gave Town the lead after just two minutes and Paddy Lane equalised to leave a 2-2 scoreline after their hosts had turned the game on its head either side of half time.
After facing Portsmouth, Lincoln, Sheffield Wednesday, Rotherham United and Sunderland already, Grayson's men now face yet another one of the big sides on Tuesday, looking to extend this fantastic run of form.
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Team News
The hosts welcomed David Kasumu back to the squad for the weekend victory over Wycombe, although he failed to make an appearance from the bench.
Mo Eisa has also returned to training and, after not making the squad on Saturday, he may be pushing to rejoin his teammates on Tuesday.
Peter Kioso made the bench against Wycombe despite limping off against Gillingham in the previous match, so will be available and pushing to rejoin the starting lineup.
Meanwhile, Fleetwood continue to remain without long-term absentees Darnell Johnson and Brad Halliday for the trip to Milton Keynes.
Shayden Morris, Harrison Holgate and Anthony Pilkington have all been missing of late as well so it remains to be seen if they will be fit enough to return for Town.
However, Daniel Batty returned to the squad for the first time in a month against Cambridge on Saturday, so he will be available again after a bout of illness.
MK Dons possible starting lineup:
Fisher; O'Hora, Darling, Lewington; Watson, Kasumu, O'Riley, Robson, Harvie; Twine, Parrott
Fleetwood Town possible starting lineup:
Cairns; Hill, Clarke, Andrew; Johnson, Biggins, Rossiter, Clark; Camps; Garner, Edmondson
We say: MK Dons 2-1 Fleetwood Town
On paper this match seems to have the potential to be a really entertaining and open affair. Therefore, goals should be expected and we say MK Dons will just edge out Fleetwood here, with their extra quality and home advantage just being enough.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 53.19%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 21.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
