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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Northern Ireland national football team
Nations League | League C
Sep 5, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Windsor Park
Luxembourg national football team

N. Ireland
2 - 0
Luxembourg

McNair (11'), Ballard (17')
Brown (87')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Mahmutovic (45')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Northern Ireland and Luxembourg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions
Last Game: N. Ireland 2-0 Andorra
Tuesday, June 11 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Luxembourg

All competitions
Last Game: Belgium 3-0 Luxembourg
Saturday, June 8 at 7pm in International Friendlies

We said: Northern Ireland 1-1 Luxembourg

 Northern Ireland have got the better of Luxembourg in their previous two meetings, but a closer contest could be in store on Thursday. Both nations will fancy their chances of success, but we can see the spoils being shared on this occasion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 86.37%. A draw had a probability of 10.7% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 2.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 2-0 with a probability of 17.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (15.75%) and 1-0 (13.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (5.15%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (1.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 17.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Northern Ireland in this match.

Result
Northern IrelandDrawLuxembourg
86.37% (1.887 1.89) 10.68% (-1.022 -1.02) 2.95% (-0.868 -0.87)
Both teams to score 26% (-4.122 -4.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.91% (-0.399 -0.4)43.09% (0.397 0.4)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.51% (-0.395 -0.39)65.49% (0.392 0.39)
Northern Ireland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.84% (0.349 0.35)7.16% (-0.351 -0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
73.97% (0.914 0.91)26.03% (-0.917 -0.92)
Luxembourg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
28% (-4.562 -4.56)72% (4.559 4.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
4.35% (-1.6469 -1.65)95.65% (1.644 1.64)
Score Analysis
    Northern Ireland 86.35%
    Luxembourg 2.95%
    Draw 10.68%
Northern IrelandDrawLuxembourg
2-0 @ 17.91% (0.94 0.94)
3-0 @ 15.75% (1.11 1.11)
1-0 @ 13.58% (0.48 0.48)
4-0 @ 10.38% (0.898 0.9)
2-1 @ 5.89% (-0.8 -0.8)
5-0 @ 5.48% (0.566 0.57)
3-1 @ 5.17% (-0.597 -0.6)
4-1 @ 3.41% (-0.325 -0.33)
6-0 @ 2.41% (0.288 0.29)
5-1 @ 1.8% (-0.136 -0.14)
7-0 @ 0.91% (0.123 0.12)
Other @ 3.67%
Total : 86.35%
0-0 @ 5.15% (0.089 0.09)
1-1 @ 4.46% (-0.7 -0.7)
2-2 @ 0.97% (-0.35 -0.35)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 10.68%
0-1 @ 1.69% (-0.301 -0.3)
Other @ 1.26%
Total : 2.95%

How you voted: N. Ireland vs Luxembourg

Northern Ireland
55.0%
Draw
30.0%
Luxembourg
15.0%
100
Head to Head
Mar 25, 2022 7.15pm
International Friendly
Luxembourg
1-3
N. Ireland
Da Graca (58')
Chanot (20'), Barreiro (41')
Magennis (16'), Davis (83'), Whyte (85')
Charles (80')
> Preview
Sep 5, 2019 7.45pm
International Friendlies
N. Ireland
1-0
Luxembourg
Malget (37' og.)
Magennis (82'), Flanagan (91')

da Mota (81'), Hall (84')
Sep 10, 2013 7.15pm
Qualifiers
Luxembourg
3-2
N. Ireland
> Match Report
Sep 11, 2012 7.45pm
Qualifiers
N. Ireland
1-1
Luxembourg
Shiels
Da Mota
rhs 2.0
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