New York City FC take on CF Montreal in the MLS Eastern Conference on Wednesday, with both sides looking to establish themselves in the playoff positions.
The visitors will head to USA's most populous city full of confidence after winning three successive matches, with the hosts looking to recover from two consecutive defeats.
Match preview
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Indeed, NY City have lost both of their last two matches by the scoreline of 2-1, including to Montreal on July 8.
It is a weird quirk of the MLS calendar that teams sometimes play each other in quick succession, with this only really occurring in major European football leagues when a fixture has had to be rescheduled to a later date for whatever reason.
NY City had taken the lead that day via Keaton Parks's 29th-minute strike, but were ultimately defeated despite dominating possession.
The same was true of the weekend's 2-1 defeat away to Columbus Crew, who only had 39% possession and six shots compared to NY City's tally of 21 across the 90 minutes, but still managed to come out as the winning side.
As such, former Celtic boss Ronny Deila, who took over in January 2020 and guided the club to the playoffs for the fifth successive season, will be demanding a more clinical edge from his attackers as they seek to gain revenge over Montreal on Wednesday.
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Wilfried Nancy, who was promoted to become head coach of Montreal after Thierry Henry departed the club in March, will be fully aware of a potential backlash in New York on Wednesday.
However, his players' morale should be as high as any side in the MLS right now as three successive victories have propelled them to fourth in the Eastern Conference table, with a five-point buffer inside the playoff positions.
For a club which has failed to qualify for the playoffs in each of the last four seasons, this represents significant improvement under the 44-year-old's tutelage. It is still relatively early days, though, with Nancy keen to keep his players' collective feet on the ground.
That may prove a difficult mission to achieve, however, especially after the weekend's magnificent 5-4 victory over FC Cincinnati, with the Canadian outfit coming from 2-0 and 4-2 down to earn another valuable three points and extend their unbeaten run to six games ahead of a crucial match against playoff rivals NY City.
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Team News
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NY City remain without Sean Johnson and James Sands, who are both on international duty with USA in the Gold Cup.
Gedion Zelalem and Heber are also both out of action with serious knee injuries, which have kept them on the sidelines since 2020.
Montreal, meanwhile, are likely to travel without Ballou Tabla due to a groin injury.
Defenders Aljaz Struna and Rudy Camacho will incur a one-match suspension if they are cautioned on Wednesday.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Barraza; Tinnerholm, Chanot, Callens, Thorarinsson; Acevedo, Parks; Medina, Moralez, Andrade; Castellanos
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Pantemis; Choiniere, Waterman, Camacho, Bassong; Wanyama, Mihailovic, Lappalainen; Maciel; Torres, Toye
We say: New York City FC 1-2 CF Montreal
With NY City's squad looking a little depleted at present and their form suffering, we can envisage Montreal winning a fourth successive match.
The hosts will likely dominate possession, but in Mason Toye especially, the visitors possess a clinical edge in attack, which could make the decisive difference.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 69.1%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 12.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.65%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (3.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
