Defensa y Justicia will try to distance themselves from the teams chasing them in Group A of the Copa Libertadores when they travel to Sao Paulo to face Palmeiras on Tuesday.
The Argentines are currently in second place but just a point ahead of Independiente del Valle, while the defending champions Palmeiras have already clinched first place in the group with 12 points.
Match preview
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Coming into this tournament as solid favourites, Palmeiras survived a tough opening match to beat Universitario 3-2 with a 95th-minute strike from Renan.
Since then, Abel Ferreira has seen his side string together three consecutive wins, scoring eight goals while conceding only once.
Throughout this competition, the Brazilians have shown they do not need many opportunities to score, and when they do, they make their opponents pay.
In their last group match, they only had three shots on target and 28% possession but still looked comfortable as they beat Independiente del Valle 1-0.
Because Palmeiras are so efficient at scoring goals, people tend to forget how strong they are defensively.
After conceding twice in three minutes in their opening match and then losing Alan Empereur to a red card, the Palestra back three of Renan, Gustavo Gomez and Luan have been exceptional.
Those three have held their opponents to a total of only 10 shots on target in their previous three matches in the group stage.
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With two games remaining in Group A, Defensa manager Sebastian Beccacece and his side know that they will qualify for the second round if they can win those games.
It seems simple enough in principle, but as this team discovered last season, winning down the stretch can be a lot harder to execute when the moment arrives.
In 2020 Halcon lost their last two matches in the group stage, finishing a point behind Delfin and losing a spot in the last 16.
Beccacece and his team will not be intimidated by the high-flying Brazilians, as they have played them three times in just over a month, and on each occasion, these teams were separated by a goal or fewer.
On matchday three, they gave up a pair of goals to Rony in a 2-1 loss.
Still, they were able to upset the Brazilians in the Recopa Sudamericana, thanks to the heroics of goalkeeper Ezequiel Unsain, who stopped two penalty kicks in the second leg of that final back in April.
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Team News
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Palmeiras will be without Matias Vina because of his suspension, and Breno Lopes, who has a stretched ligament, is unlikely to feature.
Rony has four goals in this competition and three in his last three games versus Halcon in all competitions.
Defensa have been hit hard by COVID lately as Braian Romero, Franco Paredes and Fernando Meza all tested positive for the virus, but all three played in their last match in this competition which is good news for Sebastian Beccacece, who will need his top players for this match.
Ezequiel Unsain has one clean sheet for Defensa back on matchday two, when he did not have to make a single save in a 3-0 victory over Universitario.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Renan, Gomez, Mayke; Luis, Danilo, Scarpa, Lima, Melo; Wesley, Willian
Defensa y Justicia possible starting lineup:
Unsain; Britez, Rodriguez, Meza; Rotondi, Tripicchio, Gallardo, Fernandez, Rius; Bou, Romero
We say: Palmeiras 3-1 Defensa y Justicia
With first place in the group already sewn up, we can expect to see plenty of changes to the Palestra starting 11, but even their reserve team are a formidable side who can do a lot of damage to an opposing defence like that of Defensa, who have conceded six goals in their previous two matches in all competitions.
Winning against Palmeiras at Allianz Parque could be too much to ask of Defensa, as the Brazilians have not lost at home in the group stage of this competition since 2016, outscoring visiting teams by a total margin of 47-6 since that defeat.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 57.67%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 17.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.46%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
