Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 50.16%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 24.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (9.01%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Braga |
24.95% ( 0.05) | 24.89% ( 0.03) | 50.16% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 52.12% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.7% ( -0.08) | 50.29% ( 0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.75% ( -0.07) | 72.24% ( 0.07) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.2% ( -0) | 34.79% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.47% ( -0) | 71.52% ( 0) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.94% ( -0.06) | 20.06% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.71% ( -0.1) | 52.29% ( 0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Braga |
1-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.2% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.37% ( 0) Other @ 2.1% Total : 24.95% | 1-1 @ 11.83% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.88% | 0-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.51% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.01% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.09% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.82% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 50.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 5 | 34 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 20 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 25 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 21 |
5 | Braga | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 20 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 17 |
9 | Casa Pia | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 10 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 10 |
13 | AVS | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 10 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 9 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
16 | Nacional | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 8 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 5 |
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