Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 47.02%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 26.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.