Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.87%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 12.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.8%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (4.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
12.57% ( -0.15) | 18.57% ( -0.05) | 68.87% ( 0.21) |
Both teams to score 49.58% ( -0.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.94% ( -0.16) | 42.05% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.54% ( -0.16) | 64.46% ( 0.16) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.79% ( -0.35) | 44.21% ( 0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.7% ( -0.29) | 80.3% ( 0.29) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.87% ( 0.01) | 11.13% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.44% ( 0.02) | 35.56% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.26% Total : 12.57% | 1-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.88% Total : 18.57% | 0-2 @ 11.86% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 10.8% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 9.68% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 8.68% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 7.08% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 4.77% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 3.89% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.03) 0-5 @ 2.09% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 1.71% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.83% Total : 68.86% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 32 | 30 |
2 | Porto | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 23 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 22 |
4 | Braga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 16 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
9 | Casa Pia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
11 | BoavistaBoavista | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 9 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 9 |
13 | AVS | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 5 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 4 |
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