Champions Real Madrid will be bidding to return to winning ways in Spain's top flight when they welcome relegation-threatened Levante to Bernabeu on Thursday evening.
Los Blancos, who were crowned champions at the end of April, suffered a 1-0 defeat to rivals Atletico Madrid in the Madrid derby at the weekend, while Levante will enter the match off the back of a 2-1 win over Real Sociedad, which boosted their hopes of avoiding relegation from La Liga.
Match preview
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Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti made seven changes to his starting side for the Madrid derby against Atletico, following the team's Champions League semi-final success over Manchester City last week.
Yannick Carrasco's first-half penalty ultimately decided the contest, but it was a bigger match for Atletico than it was for Los Blancos, who secured the title on April 30 with a 4-0 win over Espanyol, and their full focus will now be on the Champions League final against Liverpool on May 28.
Ancelotti will need to balance resting players and keeping them match fit over the next couple of weeks, and it will be fascinating to see how the Italian uses his squad in their final three games of the La Liga campaign against Levante, Cadiz and Real Betis, especially as the three matches could have a lot riding on them.
Real Madrid have the best home record in Spain's top flight this term, picking up 40 points from 17 matches, and they will be welcoming a Levante outfit with the fourth-worst away record, but there is no question that it is a bigger match for the visitors, who are battling to stay in the division.
The reigning champions were held to a 3-3 draw by Levante in the reverse match earlier this season, while they suffered a 1-0 loss when the pair locked horns at Bernabeu last term, so their last home success over Thursday's opponents was back in September 2019.
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The visitors will enter this match off the back of a 2-1 success over Real Sociedad on May 6, with Gonzalo Melero's 90th-minute penalty deciding the contest in Valencia.
Alessio Lisci's side are currently 19th in the table, five points behind 17th-placed Granada, meaning that they will need to secure three positive results in their final three matches to stand a chance of staying in the league.
After a trip to Madrid, Levante will welcome Alaves on May 15 before finishing their campaign away to Rayo Vallecano on May 22, and the fact that they have picked up four points from their last two games against Valencia and Real Sociedad should mean that confidence is high.
The Valencia-based outfit have only played outside of Spain's top flight on one occasion since 2010, so it would be a surprise if they were relegated to the Segunda Division for the 2022-23 campaign.
Levante have only won six league games this season, which is the worst record in the division, while they have conceded 67 times, which is the poorest defensive record, so it is not difficult to see why it has been such a difficult campaign for the two-time Segunda Division champions.
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Team News
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Real Madrid have welcomed Eden Hazard back into first-team training following a leg operation, but the Belgium international will again be unavailable for selection here.
Marcelo, Dani Ceballos, Isco, Gareth Bale and David Alaba all missed out against Atletico at the weekend and are still absent here, while Dani Carvajal (rest) and Marco Asensio (ankle) are also unavailable.
Head coach Ancelotti is expected to recall a number of key players to his starting side, though, with Federico Valverde, Vinicius Junior, Luka Modric, Ferland Mendy, Thibaut Courtois and Karim Benzema all in line to feature in the first XI.
Toni Kroos could potentially have a rest from the start, but Rodrygo might keep his spot as part of a front three alongside the returning Benzema and Vinicius, who both impressed in the semi-final Champions League success over Man City last week.
Levante will be missing Roberto Soldado, Jorge de Frutos, Carlos Clerc and Shkodran Mustafi for Thursday night's contest in the Spanish capital.
The visitors did not pick up any fresh concerns against Real Sociedad last time out, but there could be a change in midfield, with Melero potentially coming in for Jose Campana.
Dani Gomez and Jose Luis Morales are set to continue as the front two in a 5-3-2 formation, with Jorge Miramon and Son featuring as the wing-backs for the relegation-threatened outfit.
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Vazquez, Militao, Nacho, Mendy; Valverde, Casemiro, Modric; Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius
Levante possible starting lineup:
Cardenas; Miramon, Rober, Duarte, Vezo, Son; Radoja, Pepelu, Melero; D Gomez, Morales
We say: Real Madrid 2-1 Levante
Levante are fighting for their lives at the bottom of the table, but the fact that Real Madrid lost against Atletico will make this a tough match for the visitors, even if Ancelotti's side are not under any pressure to win. It could be a tight match on Thursday evening, but we are expecting the champions to secure all three points.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 75.27%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Levante had a probability of 9.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.65%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Levante win it was 1-2 (2.87%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
Top tip
Matt Law
