A crucial game takes place at the bottom end of the Primeira Liga table on Saturday, as SC Farense welcome Belenenses to the Estadio de Sao Luis.
While Farense did recently lift themselves off the foot of the table, they now sit in 15th spot level on points with Famalicao in the automatic relegation zone, while Belenenses sit three places ahead but only three points above the drop zone.
Match preview
© Reuters
Farense suffered their first defeat in five league games last time out, when they were beaten 2-0 away at Rio Ave.
Goals from Pele and Rafael Camacho settled the encounter, handing an 11th league loss of the season to Jorge Costa's side.
Before that, Costa had a strong start to life as Farense manager, picking up seven points from his first six games following the dismissal of Sergio Vieira, who left the club with the side at the foot of the table.
Despite their improved form, Farense still sit just one point above the drop zone, meaning they could be dragged back into the bottom two if results do not go their way.
As a result, Costa will be desperate to get back to winning ways on Saturday, as that would see them move ahead of their opponents and further away from the relegation zone.
However, Belenenses will also see this as a great opportunity to beat one of the sides around them, and put some more distance between themselves and the bottom three.
© Reuters
Petit's side fell to a 3-0 home defeat at the hands of Benfica last time out as three goals inside 20 minutes of the second half, courtesy of a Haris Seferovic brace and a Lucas Verissimo goal, put the game out of sight.
Similarly to Farense, that result ended a positive run for Belenenses, having gone five games without a league defeat before that game.
That included an impressive 2-1 win at home to Nacional, when Miguel Cardoso scored the winner from the penalty spot after Tomas Ribeiro's opener was cancelled out by a Kenji Gorre equaliser for the visitors.
Belenenses' problems have undoubtedly come in attack this season, with no other side in the division scoring as few as the 13 goals they have netted from 22 league games.
On the other hand, O Belem have excelled in defence this campaign, with only Benfica and league leaders Sporting Lisbon conceding fewer than the 21 they have shipped.
As a result, Petit will feel that if his side can find a way to score a few more goals, they should have more than enough to fight off the threat of relegation, and Saturday presents a good opportunity to move further ahead of the sides below them.
- L
- W
- D
- D
- D
- L
- D
- D
- D
- W
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Farense will be boosted by the return of Ryan Gauld, after their talisman served a one-game suspension last time out for accumulating five league yellow cards.
The Scotsman has led Os Leoes de Faro's attack this campaign, netting seven Primeira Liga goals and four assists in 21 appearances.
They will also welcome centre-back Andre Pinto back to action, with the experienced defender also suspended for the loss to Rio Ave after he was shown a red card in their previous game.
However, they could remain without winger Madi Queta, who has missed their last two games through injury.
Goalkeeper Rafael Defendi was absent from the squad for Farense's defeat to Rio Ave, and Hugo Marques could start again if Defendi remains out.
Petit could opt to make changes to his side for this game, after his defensive system was picked apart by Benfica.
That could mean Bruno Ramires and Afonso Sousa return to the starting side for this match, with Sousa offering more attacking threat from the wide areas.
Centre-back Henrique was absent from the squad last time out, as Goncalo Silva started in his absence.
SC Farense possible starting lineup:
Marques; Tavares, Pinto, Mancha, Nunes; Lucca, Oudrhiri; Lica, Gauld, Mansilla; Stojiljkovic
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Kritsyuk; Esgaio, Silva, Ribeiro; Calila, Sithole, Ramires, Sousa; Cardoso, Cassierra, Varela
We say: SC Farense 1-0 Belenenses
We expect the trend of Belenenses games being low scoring to continue in this game, and we see the hosts just edging them on Saturday.
The return of Gauld will be a major boost for Os Leoes de Faro, and they should have just enough to break down the solid back line of Belenenses, while their own defence should not be too threatened.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SC Farense win with a probability of 36.92%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SC Farense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.27%) and 2-1 (7.26%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 0-1 (12.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
