We said: Cagliari 1-1 Napoli
Even if Napoli are starting to take shape under the demanding management of Antonio Conte, their hosts are set to put up strong resistance and could hold out for a point.
Cagliari can be tough customers on home turf, and their forwards will pose a real threat to the Azzurri's new three-man back line.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 49.31%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 25.69% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.46%) and 0-2 (8.79%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
-0.07) 
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