Velez Sarsfield will hope to move into second place in Group G of the Copa Libertadores on Thursday when they host LDU Quito at Estadio Jose Amalfitani in Buenos Aires.
The Argentines are one point back of Los Blancos in the standings and will be looking for some payback after the Ecuadorians beat them earlier in the competition, 3-1 in Quito.
Match preview
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This is a critical match for El Fortin, who are making their first appearance in this tournament since 2014 and looking to make the most of this opportunity.
After losing their opening two matches, Mauricio Pellegrino and his side got back on track last week, beating Union La Calera 2-0.
Pellegrino had an illustrious playing career, winning La Liga three times, capturing the UEFA Cup with Valencia and winning the Intercontinental Cup among other things.
He also helped Velez Sarsfield win the Copa Libertadores trophy in 1994, their only triumph to date in this competition.
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LDU are one of the most successful clubs in Ecuadorian football, winning 11 national titles and capturing their first Supercopa Ecuador in 2020.
Under manager Pablo Repetto they have shown they can compete with the big clubs in South America, beating out former three-time Copa champions Sao Paulo to make the knockout stage of this competition last season.
The Uruguayan coach has seen his side finish second in their group in 2019 and 2020, and he would love to make it beyond this stage for a third consecutive campaign.
After being five minutes away from earning a point against Flamengo in their last match, they will be keen to shake that off and put some distance between themselves and the Argentinians.
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Team News
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Pellegrino has been rotating his two goalkeepers so far this season, with Alexander Dominguez playing in most of their league games and Lucas Hoyos starting in all three matches in this competition.
Juan Martin Lucero is yet to find the back of the net in this competition, but he has netted four times in the Argentine Primera Division.
Quito striker Luis Amarilla has been in fine form for Los Blancos in league play, scoring in his last three games for the club.
He will hope to take some pressure off Cristian Martinez Borja and Billy Arce, who between them have scored five of the team's seven goals to this point of the competition.
Velez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Ortega, Abram, De Los Santos, Guidara; Caseres, Galdames, Janson; Almada, Bouzat, Lucero
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gabbarini; Perlaza, Guerra, Corozo, Cruz; Piovi, Alcivar; Zunino, Arce, Munoz; Martinez Borja
We say: Velez Sarsfield 1-1 LDU Quito
The Argentinians will be expected to win at home, where they have won four of their last five matches in all competitions. Still, Quito have more recent experience in this tournament and should be more comfortable in this pressure situation.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 43.83%. A win for LDU Quito had a probability of 31.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest LDU Quito win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
