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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 9
Sep 27, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
0 - 2
Connah's Quay


Donohue (50'), Hughes (57')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Stratulis (70'), Edwards (90+1')
Nash (33'), Franklin (87'), Wilde (89')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Connah's Quay Nomads.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Clyde 1-0 Caernarfon
Saturday, September 24 at 3pm in Scottish Challenge Cup
Last Game: Connah's Quay 1-0 Pontypridd
Saturday, September 24 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 56.51%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 20.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.89%) and 0-2 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-0 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawConnah's Quay Nomads
20.81% (0.555 0.56) 22.67% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05) 56.51% (-0.503 -0.5)
Both teams to score 54.02% (1.031 1.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.72% (0.95200000000001 0.95)45.28% (-0.953 -0.95)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.38% (0.905 0.91)67.62% (-0.904 -0.9)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.17% (1.104 1.1)35.82% (-1.104 -1.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.4% (1.117 1.12)72.6% (-1.117 -1.12)
Connah's Quay Nomads Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.18% (0.16200000000001 0.16)15.82% (-0.162 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.01% (0.297 0.3)44.99% (-0.298 -0.3)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 20.81%
    Connah's Quay Nomads 56.51%
    Draw 22.67%
Caernarfon TownDrawConnah's Quay Nomads
1-0 @ 5.82% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-1 @ 5.51% (0.136 0.14)
2-0 @ 2.99% (0.057 0.06)
3-1 @ 1.88% (0.101 0.1)
3-2 @ 1.74% (0.102 0.1)
3-0 @ 1.02% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 20.81%
1-1 @ 10.72% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
0-0 @ 5.67% (-0.235 -0.24)
2-2 @ 5.08% (0.152 0.15)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.069 0.07)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.67%
0-1 @ 10.45% (-0.37 -0.37)
1-2 @ 9.89% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
0-2 @ 9.64% (-0.287 -0.29)
1-3 @ 6.08% (0.037 0.04)
0-3 @ 5.92% (-0.143 -0.14)
2-3 @ 3.12% (0.111 0.11)
1-4 @ 2.8% (0.032 0.03)
0-4 @ 2.73% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-4 @ 1.44% (0.058 0.06)
1-5 @ 1.03% (0.017 0.02)
0-5 @ 1.01% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 56.51%

Head to Head
Nov 9, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
0-1
Connah's Quay

Hughes (23'), Donohue (53'), Simpson (79')
Hughes (90+2')
Eardley (68')
Harrington (64')
Aug 31, 2021 7.45pm
Connah's Quay
1-1
Caernarfon
Disney (50')
Curran (32'), Owens (70')
Thomas (28')
Hughes (45+3'), Gosset (71')
May 8, 2021 5.15pm
Connah's Quay
4-0
Caernarfon
Insall (10'), Williams (69'), Morris (77', 90+2')
Wilde (37')

Hayes (77'), Mendes (83')
Brass (67')
Apr 13, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
1-6
Connah's Quay
Bickerstaff (24')
Edwards (31')
Poole (16'), Wilde (32'), Jones (54' og.), Davies (73', 90'), Horan (79')
Nov 13, 2020 7.45pm
Caernarfon
1-2
Connah's Quay
Edwards (55')
Hayes (33'), (86'), (90+8'), (90+8')
Bradley (90+4')
Wilde (75'), Morris (90+2' pen.)
(76'), (85')
Brass (90+9'), Roberts (90+9')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont1611413292337
2The New SaintsNew Saints15110442172533
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest168532081229
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU167452320325
5Barry Town UnitedBarry167452528-325
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon167362324-124
7Bala TownBala Town164932218421
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay165472018219
9Newtown AFCNewtown165472133-1219
10Briton Ferry1532101830-1211
11Flint Town UnitedFlint Town1632111834-1611
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth1631121439-2510


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