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Wolfsburg
Bundesliga | Gameweek 19
Jan 31, 2021 at 5pm UK
 
Freiburg logo

Wolfsburg
3 - 0
Freiburg

Brooks (21'), Weghorst (39'), Gerhardt (85')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Preview: Wolfsburg vs. Freiburg - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Wolfsburg and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two of the Bundesliga's most in-form sides go head-to-head on Sunday when Wolfsburg take on Freiburg.

The Wolves currently occupy fourth position in the table, with Freiburg able to go within two points of their forthcoming opponents with a victory.


Match preview

VfL Wolfsburg coach Oliver Glasner reacts on January 23, 2021© Reuters

Wolfsburg's hopes of competing in the Champions League for the first time since reaching the quarter-final in the 2015-16 campaign are well and truly alive after last weekend's 1-0 victory at Bayer Leverkusen saw them climb into a top-four position.

The Wolves survived a couple of early scares when Lucas Alario hit the post with a decent header and Florian Wirtz tamely scuffed the ball into Koen Casteels's arms from close range.

Oliver Glasner's side punished the hosts' profligacy by opening the scoring in the 35th minute, with Renato Steffen's accurate in-swinging cross finding Ridle Baku at the back post. The winger made no mistake by decisively heading past the helpless Lukas Hradecky, with Leverkusen creating nothing of note thereafter.

No side has lost fewer games than Wolfsburg this season, and they now have a golden opportunity to go on a winning run and cement themselves in the top four positions.

Freiburg head coach Christian Streich pictured on January 17, 2021© Reuters

Freiburg recently had one of their own excellent runs by winning five Bundesliga games in a row for the first time in their history, with Christian Streich's side getting back to winning ways with a solid 2-1 victory over Stuttgart last weekend.

Few sides are as dangerous on the road as Stuttgart, and so it proved when Silas Wamangituka fired the visitors ahead in the early exchanges after Daniel Didavi's close range effort had been parried into the winger's path.

However, Freiburg showed their growing belief and spirit by responding in quick-fire fashion, with Ermedin Demirovic's deflected effort and Jeong Woo-yeong's composed finish giving Streich's side the lead at half time.

Wamangituka proved a thorn in Freiburg's side throughout the 90 minutes, earning the visitors a penalty after Janik Haberer tripped him up, but Nicolas Gonzalez's dreadful effort from the spot was comfortably saved by Florian Muller as they held on for another huge victory which keeps them in the hunt for European football.

Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: WLDDWW
Wolfsburg form (all competitions): WLDDWW

Freiburg Bundesliga form: WWWLDW
Freiburg form (all competitions): LWWLDW


Team News

Wolfsburg's Renato Steffen celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates against Union Berlin on January 9, 2021© Reuters

Wolfsburg appear to have lost Steffen until at least mid-February after the creative winger suffered a muscular injury in the win at Leverkusen.

Daniel Ginczek and Jeffrey Bruma are also unavailable for Glasner's side, with Josip Brekalo likely to come into the XI in place of Steffen.

Freiburg, meanwhile, will travel to Wolfsburg without the services of Roland Sallai, Baptiste Santamaria, Kwon Chang-hoon, Gian-Luca Itter and Mark Flekken due to injury.

Nils Petersen is likely to continue his role as Streich's super sub option, with Lucas Holer also having to settle for a spot on the bench.

Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Lacroix, Brooks, Otavio; Schlager, Arnold; Baku, Gerhardt, Brekalo; Weghorst

Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Lienhart, Schlotterbeck, Gulde; Schmid, Haberer, Hofler, Gunter; Jeong, Demirovic, Grifo


SM words green background

We say: Wolfsburg 2-1 Freiburg

Both sides come into this match in excellent form, but Wolfsburg have a greater balance between defence and offence which should help them earn a narrow victory.

As is often the case when it comes to the Wolves, Wout Weghorst will be the key player on the day, with Freiburg unlikely to be able to handle his superb movement and finishing.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



ID:432654:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9211:
Written by
Brett Curtis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 56.91%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 20.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a Freiburg win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Wolfsburg vs Freiburg

Wolfsburg
77.0%
Draw
16.4%
Freiburg
6.6%
61
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Bayer Leverkusen players celebrate Moussa Diaby's goal against Borussia Dortmund on January 19, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Werder Bremen157442625125
7Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
8Freiburg157352124-324
9Stuttgart156542925423
10Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
11Wolfsburg146353125621
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243


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