Taylor Fritz squares off against Alex de Minaur on Thursday afternoon aware that only a win will do if he wishes to remain in the hunt for a semi-final spot at the ATP Tour Finals.
Meanwhile, De Minaur concludes his Ilie Nastase Group campaign looking to end on a high note having lost two successive matches in straight sets.
Match preview
© Imago
Having come through what could prove to be the pivotal match in the group against Daniil Medvedev, Fritz would have felt confident in taking the game to Jannik Sinner when they met on Tuesday.
Playing a US Open final against the Italian in what was just their third-ever meeting could have stood him in good stead, yet he was ultimately well beaten by the world number one.
The American's lack of success on his second serve proved key. He won just 38% of points behind it - in comparison to 59% for Sinner - and a solitary break in each set would prove to be the difference.
Fritz is now left with a near-identical record to Medvedev in what is effectively a battle for the runners-up spot, both players winning 51% of their games across their two matches.
With his match versus De Minaur taking place before Medvedev faces Sinner, Fritz can take full advantage and heap the pressure on his rival later in the day.
© Imago
As far as De Minaur is concerned, he is on the brink of early elimination courtesy of failing to take a set off Sinner and Medvedev.
Accumulating just 13 games across those four sets means that even a straight-sets win here would leave the Australian as an outsider to progress further.
Although De Minaur had previously been successful against Medvedev, winning three of their previous five outings, the 25-year-old did not create a single break point on the Russian's serve.
Despite leading their head-to-head, De Minaur will be lacking confidence ahead of trying to topple a player who is attempting to reach his second semi-final at this tournament in three years.
Tournament so far
Taylor Fritz:
Round-robin: vs. Medvedev 6-4 6-3
Round-robin: vs. Sinner 4-6 4-6
Alex De Minaur:
Round-robin: vs. Sinner 3-6 4-6
Round-robin: vs. Medvedev 2-6 4-6
Head To Head
Next Gen ATP Finals (2018) - round-robin: De Minaur wins 4-3 4-1 4-2
Atlanta (2019) - final: De Minaur wins 6-3 7-6
Basel (2019) - round-of-16: De Minaur wins 6-3 6-3
US Open (2021) - round-of-128: Fritz wins 7-6 6-2 1-6 6-4
Indian Wells (2022) - round-of-16: Fritz wins 3-6 6-4 7-6
Eastbourne (2022) - semi-final: Fritz wins 6-1 6-7 6-3
Canadian Masters (2023) - round-of-16: De Minaur wins 7-6 4-6 6-1
United Cup (2024) - round--robin: De Minaur wins 6-4 6-2
These two players will be meeting for the ninth time on Thursday, De Minaur currently leading their head-to-head by a 5-3 scoreline.
In both cases, victories have been recorded in succession, the Australian initially prevailing three times in a row with seven successive sets before Fritz finally emerged victorious at the 2021 US Open.
There is a freshness about this rivalry, however, with just two meetings taking place since the start of 2023. They have not faced each other on an indoor hard court since 2019.
We say: Fritz to win in three sets
Although De Minaur comes into this contest in poor form in Turin, he has the freedom to take the game to Fritz with less pressure on his shoulders. However, while that approach may be enough to win him a set, we are still backing Fritz to come through with a potentially-decisive win.
