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Preview: Emma Navarro vs. Coco Gauff - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Sunday's US Open fourth-round match between Emma Navarro and Coco Gauff, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Emma Navarro and Coco Gauff face off in Sunday's US Open fourth-round match in a rematch of their Wimbledon clash in July.

Gauff was upset by her countrywoman at the Championships in straight sets, which was the start of a disappointing spell for the United States' leading player, who seeks to avenge that loss and secure a quarter-final place in her title defence in New York.


Match preview

Coco Gauff reacts at the US Open on August 29, 2024© Imago

Navarro has had a commendable year on the women's tour, advancing to the third round in Australia, fourth at Roland Garros and quarter-final at Wimbledon, reaching a new high at the opening three Grand Slam of the year.

The World No. 12 beat Gauff in the latter at SW19, halting her younger opponent's ambition of a first title at the Championships and second Major in July, and hopes to match that showing in London by reaching the last eight in her home Slam for the first time, having never gone beyond a tournament opener in 2021 and 12 months back.

The 23-year-old has not been daunted by her deepest run in her third main draw appearance at the US Open, dropping two games each in rounds one and two against Anna Blinkova and Arantxa Rus before showcasing her battling qualities against Marta Kostyuk in her third-round 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 success.

Having enjoyed semi-final runs in Toronto and Monterrey in the lead-up to the final leading event of the year, Navarro's form at Queen's was perhaps anticipated.

Beating the defending champion will see her notch a fourth victory over a top-10 player, with two coming against her countrywoman, a challenge that does not faze the No. 12 seed.

Regardless of her positive and confident exterior, Gauff's defeat to Navarro at SW19 will still linger at the back of her mind heading into this all-American fourth-round rematch.

The 20-year-old was backed for a deep run at the Championships after several early exits — through pre-tournament withdrawals or losses to leading seeds — only to lose in two sets to the 23-year-old.

That loss began a disappointing sequence of results for the World No. 3, who struggled at the Paris Olympics, was eliminated in round two at the Canadian Open and was beaten in a tournament-opening match in an unsuccessful defence of last year's Cincinnati title, falling to Yulia Putintseva in three sets.

No such surprises have halted Gauff's ambition to be the first woman to retain the singles title at Flushing Meadows since Serena Williams's three consecutive victories between 2012 and 2014, and the 2023 champion should draw confidence from ending her five-match losing sequence against top-50 opponents after a roaring turnaround to beat No. 27 seed Elina Svitolina 3-6, 6-3, 6-3.

Aided by the Ukrainian's collapse on serve, the American made fewer errors in sets two and three to record a 10th straight victory in the tournament and aims to make that 11 in Sunday's all-American clash against Navarro.


Tournament so far

Emma Navarro:

First round: vs. Anna Blinkova 6-1 6-1
Second round: vs. Arantxa Rus 6-1 6-1
Third round: vs. Marta Kostyuk 6-4 4-6 6-3

Coco Gauff:

First round: vs. Varvara Gracheva 6-2 6-0
Second round: vs. Tatjana Maria 6-4 6-0
Third round: vs. Elina Svitolina 3-6 6-3 6-3


Head To Head

Auckland Open (2024) - Semi-final: Gauff 6-3 6-1

Wimbledon (2024) - Fourth round: Navarro 6-4 6-3

Navarro and Gauff have traded wins in their two Tour-level match-ups, with the former claiming a two-set victory in July, six months after losing in the semi-final in Auckland six months earlier en route to the 2023 US Open champion's successful title defence.

Both players have won a title apiece in 2024, although the higher-ranked player edges the win-loss statistic pre-US Open — 36-13 to 45-19 in the No. 3 seed's favour.


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We say: Gauff to win in three sets

Although we backed Svitolina to upset Gauff in three sets last time out, the defending champion's performance against a challenging opponent to secure a 10th straight success points to a possible return to form.

Thus, an 11th victory at Flushing Meadows could follow on Sunday as the World No. 3 seeks to avenge that loss to Navarro at Wimbledon.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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