We say: Scotland 1-1 Croatia
Croatia can afford to play with a certain amount of freedom, as qualification is within their own hands, while Scotland are feeling the weight of public expectation.
Performances have improved, but the Tartan Army may have to wait a while longer to celebrate an elusive home win, given their opponents' combination of guile and steel.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Croatia win with a probability of 51.81%. A draw has a probability of 24.5% and a win for Scotland has a probability of 23.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.62%) and 0-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Scotland win it is 1-0 (7.05%).
-0.35) 
0.41) 
