Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SV Darmstadt 98 win with a probability of 38.35%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 36.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SV Darmstadt 98 win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.06%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.