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Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | Gameweek 24
Apr 12, 2024 at 8am UK
Wellington Regional Stadium
Melbourne Victory

Wellington
1 - 0
Victory

Surman (90+5' og.)
Payne (31'), Ball (65')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Monge (34'), Da Silva (90+1')
Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Central Coast 2-1 Wellington
Saturday, April 6 at 7.30am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Victory 2-1 Melbourne City
Saturday, April 6 at 9.45am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.4%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.04%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.

Result
Wellington PhoenixDrawMelbourne Victory
27.62% (-0.41 -0.41) 22.98% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01) 49.4% (0.42 0.42)
Both teams to score 60.95% (-0.31 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.23% (-0.261 -0.26)39.77% (0.26300000000001 0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.87% (-0.273 -0.27)62.13% (0.274 0.27)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.85% (-0.419 -0.42)27.16% (0.421 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.45% (-0.549 -0.55)62.56% (0.551 0.55)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.67% (0.057000000000002 0.06)16.33% (-0.055 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.08% (0.1 0.1)45.92% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Wellington Phoenix 27.62%
    Melbourne Victory 49.4%
    Draw 22.98%
Wellington PhoenixDrawMelbourne Victory
2-1 @ 6.83% (-0.066 -0.07)
1-0 @ 5.78% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 3.77% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-1 @ 2.97% (-0.064 -0.06)
3-2 @ 2.69% (-0.054 -0.05)
3-0 @ 1.64% (-0.039 -0.04)
4-1 @ 0.97% (-0.033 -0.03)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 27.62%
1-1 @ 10.47% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.19% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-0 @ 4.43% (0.054 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.62% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 22.98%
1-2 @ 9.49% (0.038 0.04)
0-1 @ 8.04% (0.113 0.11)
0-2 @ 7.28% (0.115 0.11)
1-3 @ 5.73% (0.033 0.03)
0-3 @ 4.4% (0.078 0.08)
2-3 @ 3.74% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-4 @ 2.6% (0.02 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.99% (0.039 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.69% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
1-5 @ 0.94% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 3.49%
Total : 49.4%

Head to Head
Jan 19, 2024 6am
Gameweek 13
Wellington
1-1
Victory
Rufer (90+5' pen.)
Payne (45+8')
Chapman (79')
Traore (36')
Nov 10, 2023 8.45am
Gameweek 4
Victory
1-1
Wellington
Teague (14')
Geria (83')
Da Silva (41' og.)
Pennington (8'), Surman (18'), Kelly-Heald (45+4'), Payne (89')
Apr 1, 2023 3am
Gameweek 22
Wellington
1-2
Victory
Zawada (25')
Fornaroli (58'), Da Silva (76')
Feb 3, 2023 8.45am
Gameweek 15
Victory
3-1
Wellington
Fornaroli (32'), Brimmer (54'), Juric (90+1')
Zawada (13')
Apr 29, 2022 10.45am
Gameweek 26
Victory
3-1
Wellington
D'Agostino (2'), Brimmer (68' pen.), Rojas (78')
Broxham (24'), D'Agostino (39'), Nigro (43'), Rojas (54')
Sandoval (26' pen.)
Wootton (13'), Surman (71'), Pennington (77')
rhs 2.0
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