Atletico Mineiro can almost guarantee their place in the last 16 of the Copa Libertadores on Thursday when they travel to Romelio Martinez Stadium in Colombia to face America de Cali.
The Colombians have only earned one point from their opening three games, while Galo are undefeated so far as they seek their second title in this competition and their first since 2013.
Match preview
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Los Diablos Rojos are making a second consecutive appearance at this stage of this competition, after finishing at the bottom of their group in 2020.
So far, it does not look like they have learned from their recent experience, as they are currently sitting in last in their group with just one point.
The silver lining for Juan Cruz Real and his team is that they are still within striking distance of the other teams in the group, and a win on Thursday can potentially move them from last place into a qualification position.
Defensively they have excelled, especially of late, with two successive clean sheets in all competitions, but offensively they still need to improve, scoring just once in their opening three matches of this tournament.
Colombian sides have struggled so far in this edition of the Copa Libertadores, with Atletico Nacional the only team from the area currently in a position to qualify for the last 16.
While teams from Colombia have not fared well to this point, those from Brazil have thrived, including Atletico Mineiro, who have seven points so far as they look to make it beyond this stage of the competition for the first time since 2017.
All six sides remaining from Brazil are in first in their respective groups, and Atletico manager Cuca is looking to bring this side back to glory after being in charge of their successful 2013 Copa Libertadores campaign.
The well-travelled manager has various accolades to boast about throughout a lengthy coaching career that has seen him manage more than 20 clubs, primarily in Brazil.
In their last match of this tournament, the Brazilians made a solid defensive unit in Cerro Porteno look very shaky, scoring four times against the Paraguayans, who had not conceded until that point of the competition.
Atletico have had their way with Colombian teams lately, going unbeaten in their last seven games against them in this competition.
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Team News
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America goalkeeper Joel Graterol has picked up back-to-back clean sheets for his side in all competitions, making seven saves over that span.
Midfielder Luis Mosquera has the only goal for the Colombians to this point of the group stage, as this team have failed to score in three of their last five matches in all competitions.
Attacking midfielder Matias Zaracho could miss out again for Atletico with a bruised ankle which he sustained last month, which means Nathan could start in his place.
Hulk has three goals in his last three games and is currently just one behind Gabriel Barbosa for most in the 2021 competition with four.
America de Cali possible starting lineup:
Graterol; Quino, Cabezas, Murillo, Arrieta; Paz, Urena; Moreno, Carrascal, Cabrera; Mosquera
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Guga, Rabello, Alonso, Arana; Franco, Jair, Fernandez; Savarino, Hulk, Keno
We say: America de Cali 0-3 Atletico Mineiro
America are winless in their last five matches in this competition against teams from Brazil and they have struggled to find the back of the net in their first three games of this tournament, which does not bode well against a team that have only conceded two goals in their last five matches all competitions.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 44.74%. A win for America de Cali had a probability of 28.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.88%) and 0-2 (8.38%). The likeliest America de Cali win was 1-0 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
