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Bayern logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 33
Jun 20, 2020 at 2.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
Freiburg logo

Bayern
3 - 1
Freiburg

Kimmich (15'), Lewandowski (24', 37')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Holer (33')

Preview: Bayern Munich vs. Freiburg - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Freiburg, including team news and predicted lineups.

Fresh from securing their eighth straight Bundesliga title earlier this week, Bayern Munich will continue their 2019-20 campaign with a home match against Freiburg on Saturday afternoon.

Bayern's 1-0 win over Werder Bremen on Tuesday was enough to secure the title, but there is still plenty to play for in this match as Freiburg chase down a top-six finish.


Match preview

Bayern Munich players celebrate scoring against Eintracht Frankfurt in the DFB-Pokal semi-finals on June10, 2020© Reuters

Bayern have been in brilliant form since the 2019-20 campaign returned in the middle of May, recording nine straight wins in all competitions, including eight in the league to storm to the title.

Borussia Dortmund had been threatening to make it a tough finish for the reigning champions, but Bayern ensured that they could not be caught by beating Bremen 1-0 on Tuesday night.

Hansi Flick's side also booked their spot in the DFB-Pokal final with a 2-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt earlier this month and will face Bayer Leverkusen in the final of that competition on July 4.

The Champions League will return in August, meanwhile, meaning that it could be a famous campaign for the club, who have not lost in the Bundesliga since the early stages of December.

Despite already securing the title, Bayern will be determined to finish the season with two more wins against Freiburg and Wolfsburg, which could have a huge say in the race for a top-six finish.

Freiburg attacker Luca Waldschmidt pictured in October 2019© Reuters

Freiburg finished 13th in Germany's top flight last season but are very much in the argument for a European position this time around as the campaign enters its final stages.

Indeed, a total of 45 points from 32 matches has left them in eighth spot in the table, just a point behind sixth-placed Wolfsburg, while seventh-placed Hoffenheim are also level with the team directly above them.

Christian Streich's side will not exactly be relishing a clash against the champions, but they have picked up seven points from their last three matches, including an impressive 1-0 victory over Borussia Monchengladbach and a 2-2 draw with Wolfsburg, which could yet prove decisive.

Freiburg will finish their season at home to Schalke 04 on June 27, and a positive result in this match would certainly leave them dreaming of a return to the Europa League.

Bayern Bundesliga form: WWWWWW
Bayern form (all competitions): WWWWWW

Freiburg Bundesliga form form: LDLWDW


Team News

Bayern Munich's Alphonso Davies in action against Chelsea in the Champions League on February 26, 2020© Reuters

Bayern will be without the services of Alphonso Davies due to the red card that the Canada international picked up in Tuesday's one-goal success over Bremen.

As a result, Lucas Hernandez could come into the starting XI, but the likes of Javi Martinez, Niklas Sule, Philippe Coutinho, Corentin Tolisso and Thiago are all expected to be absent once again.

Ivan Perisic could take Kingsley Coman's spot in a wide position, although there are not expected to be too many changes from the side that featured last time out.

As for Freiburg, Lucas Holer, Robin Koch, Lukas Kubler and Manuel Gulde are all fitness doubts, meaning that Streich is likely to be forced into a reshuffle upfront.

Holer's absence could open the door for Nils Petersen to start alongside Luca Waldschmidt in the final third of the field, while Mike Frantz is an option to replace Koch in the middle of the park.

Roland Sallai was substituted during the win over Hertha Berlin on Tuesday, but the attacker is expected to continue in the starting XI.

Bayern possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Boateng, Alaba, Hernandez; Kimmich, Goretzka; Gnabry, Muller, Perisic; Lewandowski

Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Schwolow; Schmid, Lienhart, Heinz, Gunter; Grifo, Hofler, Frantz, Sallai; Waldschmidt, Petersen


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Bayern Munich 2-1 Freiburg

The pressure is off Bayern, but it is still difficult to back against the champions considering their form. Freiburg will be desperate for a positive result to boost their top-six hopes, but we fancy the home side to put another three points on the board.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 80.53%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 7.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.7%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (2.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.


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Bayern Munich's Lucas Hernandez in action for France in September 2019
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern119203672929
2Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1172227161123
3RB Leipzig11632189921
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen115512618820
5Borussia DortmundDortmund116142218419
6Freiburg115241315-217
7Stuttgart114432119216
8Union BerlinUnion Berlin1144399016
9Wolfsburg114342018215
10Werder Bremen114341722-515
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
12Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
13Hoffenheim113351722-512
14Augsburg113351323-1012
15Heidenheim113171520-510
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum110291032-222


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