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Championship | Gameweek 4
Aug 26, 2023 at 3pm UK
The Den
Stoke logo

Millwall
1 - 0
Stoke

Nisbet (38')
Saville (7')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Laurent (18'), Wilmot (33'), Hoever (35'), Pearson (51'), McNally (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Norwich 3-1 Millwall
Sunday, August 20 at 12pm in Championship
Last Game: Stoke 1-0 Watford
Saturday, August 19 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Millwall 1-2 Stoke City

At some point, the assumption is that this Millwall squad will eventually start to click and make a playoff push. For now, though, we can only back a Stoke side who have settled well, and their extra firepower could prove key in the closing stages. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Millwall had a probability of 31.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Millwall win was 1-0 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.

Result
MillwallDrawStoke City
31.96% (-0.19 -0.19) 27.13% (0.082000000000001 0.08) 40.9% (0.109 0.11)
Both teams to score 49.77% (-0.311 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.51% (-0.367 -0.37)55.49% (0.366 0.37)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.33% (-0.301 -0.3)76.67% (0.3 0.3)
Millwall Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.86% (-0.322 -0.32)32.14% (0.321 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.38% (-0.367 -0.37)68.62% (0.36499999999999 0.36)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.33% (-0.111 -0.11)26.66% (0.11 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.09% (-0.149 -0.15)61.91% (0.148 0.15)
Score Analysis
    Millwall 31.96%
    Stoke City 40.9%
    Draw 27.13%
MillwallDrawStoke City
1-0 @ 9.73% (0.052 0.05)
2-1 @ 7.3% (-0.048 -0.05)
2-0 @ 5.52% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-1 @ 2.76% (-0.042 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.09% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.83% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 31.96%
1-1 @ 12.85% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 8.57% (0.12 0.12)
2-2 @ 4.82% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 27.13%
0-1 @ 11.32% (0.12 0.12)
1-2 @ 8.5% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.49% (0.059 0.06)
1-3 @ 3.74% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.3% (0.016 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.13% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.24% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.09% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 40.9%

How you voted: Millwall vs Stoke

Millwall
0.0%
Draw
30.0%
Stoke City
70.0%
10
Head to Head
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Jul 30, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 1
Millwall
2-0
Stoke
Cresswell (12', 65')
Cresswell (39')

Flint (44'), Kilkenny (83')
Mar 19, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 39
Stoke
2-0
Millwall
Brown (19'), Saville (70' og.)
Tymon (56'), Brown (65'), Thompson (84')

Ballard (85')
Oct 23, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 14
Millwall
2-1
Stoke
Bradshaw (51', 61')
Malone (32'), Smith (84')
Sawyers (20')
Souttar (45+1')
Apr 5, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 40
Stoke
1-2
Millwall
Brown (41')
Batth (37')
Wallace (36'), Bennett (71')
Wallace (90+3')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Buccaneers
@
Chiefs
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland139222391429
2Leeds UnitedLeeds137512281426
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd138321661025
4Burnley136521761123
5Watford137152221122
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom13562148621
7Millwall135441612419
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn135441614219
9Bristol City134721717019
10Norwich CityNorwich134632318518
11Middlesbrough135351415-118
12Swansea CitySwansea13445109116
13Coventry CityCoventry134361717015
14Derby CountyDerby134361617-115
15Hull City133641517-215
16Stoke CityStoke134361518-315
17Cardiff CityCardiff134361319-615
18Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds134361524-915
19Oxford UnitedOxford Utd133551617-114
20Preston North EndPreston133551420-614
21Luton TownLuton133371521-612
22Plymouth ArgylePlymouth133371325-1212
23Queens Park RangersQPR131751119-810
24Portsmouth131661326-139


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