Girona were surprisingly subdued against struggling Almeria on Sunday, but the fact that they are top of La Liga in January should not be underestimated. Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have maintained their form from the last two seasons.
This should be an entertaining cup tie between two of Spain's rising clubs, but we expect Girona to perform closer to their peak levels and reach the quarter-finals for only the second time in their history.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 46.58%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.
0.33) 
-0.5) 
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