Although separated by 16 places in the League Two table, Crewe Alexandra and Carlisle United head into Wednesday's gameweek 24 fixture at the Mornflake Stadium with two wins combined in 14 games.
The promotion-chasing side's last win came in mid-December, while second-bottom Carlisle ended 2024 with a 2-1 success over Accrington Stanley to snap a six-match winless streak.
Match preview
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Despite the wins drying up for Crewe in the final rounds of 2024, Lee Bell's men have held on to their play-off spot before hosting Carlisle on New Year's Day, even if AFC Wimbledon, Chesterfield and Bradford, in eighth, ninth and 10th respectively, are two points behind the joint-sixth Railwaymen.
Although the Alex have lost just once since September — a 2-1 Boxing Day loss at Cheltenham Town — winning only once since November's international break threatens to undermine their promotion aspirations.
Regardless, a congested table, which sees Notts County in second just a point ahead of Crewe, means winning once in seven matches has not been fatal for Bell's side, who could rise to second after their opening fixture of 2025.
While their form does not fill fans with confidence, the hosts will back themselves to find some form against an opponent that has struggled since League One relegation.
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Carlisle may have won their final match of 2024, but the second-bottom side in League Two beating third-bottom Accrington does not suggest a turnaround is in the offing.
The Cumbrians had fired blanks in three league fixtures on the trot — losing to Chesterfield (2-0) and Morecambe (1-0) and drawing at Port Vale (0-0) — before finding their shooting boots through Kadeem Harris and Luke Armstrong.
That victory was the Blues' first since beating Salford City 1-0 at the start of November, though Mike Williamson will point to his side's two losses in seven as slight evidence of a hard-to-beat side.
Losing two in seven is an improvement after a miserable start following League One relegation that saw the Cumbrians fall to 10 losses in their opening 14 matches, with a wretched start costing Paul Simpson his job in late August.
Although wins have been few and far between under Williamson, success on January 1 could take them outside the bottom two if Accrington fail to beat fifth-placed Grimsby Town.
Team News
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Although Jamie Knight-Lebel was booked for the fifth time in Crewe's final match of 2024, the defender's yellow came after the 19-game cut-off point, leaving Bell with no seeming absentees on New Year's Day.
Jack Lankester has netted four goals and supplied two assists in his previous six appearances for the hosts, making him the Railwaymen's leading threat, although joint-top scorer Shilow Tracey (five goals) could be decisive.
Jon Mellish, who had his Boxing Day red card against Morecambe rescinded, was pivotal to Carlisle's relegation six-pointer success against Accrington, setting up Harris in the 2-1 success, and the defender should make his 20th start on January 1.
The second-lowest scorers in League Two, with 17 goals, will look to leading goalscorer Armstrong (three goals) to take responsibility after his recent match-winning strike on December 29.
Crewe Alexandra possible starting lineup:
Marschall; Knight-Lebel, Demetriou, Williams; Cooney, Holicek, Sanders, Tabiner, Conway; Lankester, Tracey
Carlisle United possible starting lineup:
Breeze; Hayden, Barclay, Mellish; Jones, Biggins, Harper, Armer; Harris, Adu-Adjei; Armstrong
We say: Crewe Alexandra 1-0 Carlisle United
Crewe have stayed undefeated on home soil since losing 5-0 to Chesterfield on August 17, although they have been held to four draws in the subsequent nine matches, including the previous two against Bradford City (1-1) and Colchester United (0-0).
Despite their propensity for the odd stalemate, Bell's side should eke out a marginal win over second-bottom Carlisle.
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