Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 85.16%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 3.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.38%) and 1-0 (11.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.03%), while for an Aston Villa Under-21s win it was 0-1 (1.85%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.