MX23RW : Thursday, December 26 22:45:03| >> :600:14488376:14488376:
[monks data]
Elgin City
Scottish League Cup | Group Stage
Jul 10, 2021 at 3pm UK
Borough Briggs
Arbroath

Elgin
0 - 1
Arbroath

FT(HT: 0-0)
Donnelly (80')
Craigen (21')

Preview: Elgin City vs. Arbroath - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Scottish League Cup clash between Elgin City and Arbroath, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Championship side Arbroath travel to Elgin City on Saturday, as they get their League Cup Group B campaign underway.

As a League Two club, the hosts will be outsiders to progress to the next stage, so the Smokies will be seeking a positive start to the competition's first phase.


Match preview

Elgin begin their build-up to a 22nd league campaign - which they will start in the same fashion they did their last, with a match versus Stranraer - by hosting second tier opponents this weekend.

After finishing in the top four after to reach the playoffs last term, Gavin Price's side lost in the semi-finals over two legs, so will be keen to bounce back by faring well in a group also featuring Kelty Hearts, Dundee United and East Fife.

Losing to Edinburgh City in that promotion playoff semi should not disguise that the Borough Briggs outfit have some talented players within their ranks, while Price is one of the SPFL's longest-serving managers.

Star striker Kane Hester topped the fourth-tier goalscoring charts last season and will now look to prove himself against higher-ranked opposition on Saturday. However, in their only pre-season friendly against league opposition, the Moray club lost 5-0 to Ross County.

Meanwhile, perhaps set to pose Dundee United's biggest threat in the group, Arbroath are coming into the 2020-21 season having finished a creditable seventh in the Championship last term.

Dick Campbell's men proved a rather tame prospect in the final third - averaging just over a goal per game - but the second tier's only part-time outfit have done well to maximise limited resources.

Legendary boss Campbell - now aged 67 - has a lightly-staffed squad at Gayfield, but will still fancy a good run in the League Cup to build momentum for the challenges ahead.

The Red Lichties have some pedigree in this competition - beating Dundee United on penalties at this stage in 2018 - so are undoubtedly keen to get off to a flying start at Borough Briggs this weekend.

With experienced trio Ricky Little, Tam O'Brien and goalkeeper Derek Gaston at the back, they have been a solid unit in recent times and pride themselves on being difficult to break down. However, they recently conceded four times against Livingston in a pre-season friendly, so perhaps Elgin have some hope of snatching a win.

Elgin City form (all competitions):
  • L

Arbroath form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L



Team News

Arbroath's only goal in pre-season came through defender Ricky Little, who met a Nicky Low corner to score in the draw at Montrose - former Dundee man Low made his loan switch from East Stirlingshire permanent recently and is expected to be a first-team mainstay - and both men are poised to start on Saturday.

Dylan Paterson and ex-Edinburgh City men Liam Henderson and Calum Antell have also joined the club during the summer, so may be given a competitive debut by Dick Campbell.

Veteran striker Bobby Linn is still set to be their focal point up front, with James Craigen, David Gold and Michael McKenna among his supporting cast.

The hosts, meanwhile, can call upon former Ross County midfielder Tony Dingwall and chief goal threat Kane Hester, as they look to get their League Cup challenge of to a flier.

A lack of preparatory matches could prove telling, though, with several men still short of fitness for Gavin Price's team.

Elgin City possible starting lineup:
McHale; Cooper, Spark, Cameron, Bronsky; T. Dingwall, O'Keefe, MacEwan, Thomson; Osadolor, Hester

Arbroath possible starting lineup:
Gaston; Thomson, Hamilton, Little, O'Brien; Low, Gold, McKenna, Craigen; Hilson, Linn


SM words green background

We say: Elgin City 0-1 Arbroath

Neither side have fared well in warm-up games, but now that the season gets underway, they could be set to contest a close-fought encounter on Saturday afternoon.

Arbroath, however, can boast several players of higher calibre, so should be able to return to Angus with all three points.



Top tipLo

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



ID:454518:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect7388:
Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arbroath win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Elgin City had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arbroath win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Elgin City win was 2-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arbroath would win this match.


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