Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals
Mar 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Wales4 - 1Finland
The Match
Match Report
Wales beat Finland 4-1 in Cardiff to set up a Euro 2024 playoff final versus Poland on Tuesday.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Wales and Finland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Wales 1-1 Turkey
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: San Marino 1-2 Finland
Monday, November 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Monday, November 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 38.2%. A win for Finland had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
Result | ||
Wales | Draw | Finland |
38.2% ( 1.19) | 27.47% ( -0.16) | 34.33% ( -1.03) |
Both teams to score 49.28% ( 0.38) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.65% ( 0.52) | 56.35% ( -0.51) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.62% ( 0.41) | 77.38% ( -0.41) |
Wales Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.4% ( 0.96) | 28.6% ( -0.96) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.6% ( 1.18) | 64.4% ( -1.18) |
Finland Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.02% ( -0.4) | 30.98% ( 0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.72% ( -0.48) | 67.28% ( 0.48) |
Score Analysis |
Wales 38.2%
Finland 34.33%
Draw 27.47%
Wales | Draw | Finland |
1-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 6.94% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 3.4% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.78% Total : 38.2% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.86% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.47% | 0-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.86% Other @ 3.04% Total : 34.33% |
How you voted: Wales vs Finland
Wales
72.8%Draw
12.3%Finland
14.9%195
Head to Head
Sep 1, 2021 5pm
Nov 16, 2013 6pm
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-06-29 20:20:06
Sunday, June 30
5pm
Round of 16
England
vs.
Slovakia
8pm
Round of 16
Spain
vs.
Georgia
Monday, July 1
5pm
Round of 16
France
vs.
Belgium
8pm
Round of 16
Portugal
vs.
Slovenia
Tuesday, July 2
5pm
Round of 16
Romania
vs.
Netherlands
8pm
Round of 16
Austria
vs.
Turkey
Friday, July 5
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 39
vs.
Winner Match 37
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 41
vs.
Winner Match 42
Saturday, July 6
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 40
vs.
Winner Match 38
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 43
vs.
Winner Match 44
Tuesday, July 9
8pm
Wednesday, July 10
8pm
Sunday, July 14
8pm
Group A
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | Germany | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Q | Switzerland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 | Hungary | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
4 | Scotland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Group D
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | Austria | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Q | France | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Q | Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
4 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
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