We said: Valencia 1-0 Rayo Vallecano
Valencia have not beaten Rayo at home in La Liga since November 2018, and it would not be a surprise to see a draw this weekend, but Los Che will enter this match in the better form, and we fancy the hosts to secure a narrow victory against Perez's team.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 37.93%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (11.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
0.11) 
-0.03) 
