Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 24

Feb 19, 2023 at 2pm UK

Stade de l'Aube

Troyes
0 - 1
Montpellier

Agoume (8'), Chavalerin (81')
Ndiaga Yade (67')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Khazri (90')
Chotard (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Troyes and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Troyes

All competitions

Last Game: Reims 4-0 Troyes
Sunday, February 12 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Last Game: Montpellier 3-0 Brest
Sunday, February 12 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Troyes 2-3 Montpellier HSC

Given that Montpellier have shown some improved signs in recent weeks, we expect them to emerge as narrow victors, in what should be an end-to-end game with plenty of goals. La Paillade are heading into the match off the back of a confidence-boosting victory, while Troyes have been in very poor form for a long time, and we cannot see that changing on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Troyes win with a probability of 38.77%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 34.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Troyes win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.

Result
Troyes	Draw	Montpellier HSC
38.77% ( 0.78)	26.29% ( -0.13)	34.93% ( -0.64)

Both teams to score 53.11% (

0.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.45% (

0.51)

51.55% (

-0.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.66% (

0.44)

73.34% (

-0.43)

Troyes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74% (

0.67)

26% (

-0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.97% (

0.89)

61.03% (

-0.88)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.77% (

-0.15)

28.23% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.07% (

-0.19)

63.93% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Troyes 38.77%

Montpellier HSC 34.93%

Draw 26.29%

Troyes	Draw	Montpellier HSC
1-0 @ 9.89% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.42% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.36% Total : 38.77%	1-1 @ 12.5% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.29%	0-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 7.91% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 5.87% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.76% Total : 34.93%