Seeking their seventh Premier League win on the bounce, Manchester City welcome Leeds United to the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday night.
Pep Guardiola's men sunk Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-0 on Saturday, while the Whites went down 3-2 to Chelsea in the capital.
Match preview
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From the heroics of Jose Sa and Conor Coady, Raul Jimenez's foolish red card and a highly controversial penalty awarded against Joao Moutinho, Man City's clash with Wolves on a miserable Saturday lunchtime had it all.
Despite the veteran midfielder's protests and gestures towards his armpit, Raheem Sterling was granted the opportunity to win the day from the penalty spot for handball, and the ex-Liverpool man calmly slotted home for his 100th Premier League goal.
The attacker has not had the easiest time of things under Guardiola in recent months, but his confident spot kick cemented City's place at the top of the table - one point above Liverpool and two clear of Chelsea after 16 games in the 2021-22 season.
It is now six top-flight wins on the bounce for Guardiola's ruthless crop, who would do well to utilise their impressive squad depth heading into the hectic festive period, but the Catalan coach will certainly be encouraged by his side's defensive resilience on home soil.
Indeed, the reigning champions have only conceded three Premier League goals at the Etihad this season - keeping clean sheets on six occasions - and Marcelo Bielsa's side do not exactly boast the same sort of solidity at the back.
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It was a tale of three penalties at Stamford Bridge during Chelsea's clash with Leeds, as Raphinha opened the scoring from 12 yards before Mason Mount silenced the vibrant Leeds support with a home equaliser just before the break.
Bielsa's men held their own for large portions of the contest, but Antonio Rudiger was felled twice inside the box either side of Joe Gelhardt's equaliser, and Jorginho dispatched both penalties to hand the European champions all three points on the day.
It was certainly a cruel way for Leeds to travel back home empty-handed, but with results elsewhere in the bottom half going their way, the Whites remain in 15th and six points clear of the relegation zone at the time of writing.
Defeat to Chelsea marked just Leeds' second loss from their last eight in the top flight, but they have only claimed one win and kept one clean sheet in their eight road games so far, which does not bode well before a trip to the champions.
The Whites did manage to hold City to a 1-1 draw at Elland Road before prevailing 2-1 at the Etihad during their eye-catching 2020-21 campaign, but Leeds are a far cry from their former selves.
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Team News
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City are expected to remain without Ferran Torres until the New Year, while Ilkay Gundogan was "struggling a lot" with back pain after coming off against Wolves at the weekend but is fine to play this week.
Kyle Walker ought to make an immediate return at right-back with Joao Cancelo suspended for an accumulation of yellow cards, while Phil Foden and Nathan Ake were fit enough to make the bench at the weekend.
Foden and Kevin De Bruyne are both candidates to return to the first XI this week, and there could also be a spot for Riyad Mahrez as Guardiola ponders the need for fresh legs.
As for Leeds, Patrick Bamford, Kalvin Phillips and Liam Cooper are all down with hamstring injuries, while Rodrigo is still struggling with heel pain.
Robin Koch has been dealing with a bout of illness and may not be ready to return just yet, and Pascal Struijk was a last-minute withdrawal from the Chelsea game due to an inflamed knee.
Bielsa's hand is therefore forced in several areas of the pitch, with Mateusz Klich the only potential option for change despite his costly foul on Rudiger at Stamford Bridge.
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Walker, Dias, Laporte, Zinchenko; De Bruyne, Rodri, Silva; Mahrez, Sterling, Foden
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Dallas, Ayling, Llorente, Firpo; Shackleton, Forshaw; Raphinha, Harrison, James; Roberts
We say: Manchester City 2-0 Leeds United
With multiple absentees to contend with and a penchant for conceding goals away from home, this clash is only expected to end in one way for Leeds and Bielsa.
Guardiola will pay his opposite number the respect that he deserves, but a refreshed City side should continue to dominate at home with maximum points on Tuesday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 80.94%. A draw had a probability of 12.2% and a win for Leeds United had a probability of 6.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (8.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.64%), while for a Leeds United win it was 1-2 (2.15%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
