Marseille will be looking to consolidate their place in the Champions League positions when they welcome Reims to the Stade Velodrome for their Ligue 1 encounter on Wednesday night.
The hosts have won only two of their last six French top-flight games on home soil, after winning seven of their first nine under head coach Jorge Sampaoli, while the visitors have won only one of their last six league matches on the road.
Match preview
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Marseille avoided a Coupe de France upset last weekend as they came from behind to beat fifth division outfit Cannet Rocheville 4-1 at the Stade Velodrome.
Mike Core gave the visitors a surprise lead in the 16th minute; however, a hat-trick from Arkadiusz Milik as well as a strike form Luis Henrique helped the hosts advance into the round of 32.
Sampaoli's men have now won each of their last three matches across all competitions, including their most recent Ligue 1 game away to Strasbourg, which has kept them second in the table.
Les Phoceens head into Wednesday's clash with a surprisingly poor record against Reims, losing 49% of their 63 Ligue 1 games against them.
Marseille have also won only one of their last eight French top-flight games on home soil against Reims, which was a slender 1-0 win back in May 2016.
One positive Marseille can take into their midweek fixture is their impressive defensive record; Sampaoli's side have conceded just 14 goals in their 17 Ligue 1 games this term, their lowest tally at this stage of a top-flight season since 1998-99 (13), and they have also registered nine clean sheets in the competition, with only Liverpool (10) keeping more clean sheets in Europe's top five leagues this season.
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Reims managed to scrape past sixth-tier city rivals Reims Sainte-Anne in the Coupe de France when they secured a narrow 1-0 away victory in the third round last weekend.
The Ligue 1 outfit were seemingly on their way to a disappointing goalless draw until an 89th-minute strike from 18-year-old midfielder Martin Adeline snatched the victory at the death for the visitors, sending them through to the round of 32 for the first time in three years.
Oscar Garcia's men have now won four of their last five matches across all competitions, including a 2-0 victory at home against basement club Saint-Etienne in their most recent league match, which moved them to within three points of the top 10 and crucially seven points above the drop zone.
Reims have secured five points from a possible nine available in their last three away league games at Marseille, including last season's 1-1 draw in December.
Les rouges et blancs have won three of their last four Ligue 1 matches, as many as in their previous 24 in the competition, and will be confident of securing another positive result on Wednesday.
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Team News
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Marseille currently have a clean bill of health so Sampaoli will have a fully-fit squad to choose from on Wednesday.
Sampaoli is expected to recall a number of his first-team regulars who did not play on Sunday to the starting lineup, with the likes of Pau Lopez, William Saliba, Duje Caleta-Car and Boubacar Kamara all expected to start.
After bagging a hat-trick at the weekend, Milik will be hoping he has done enough to keep his place in attack, joining 34-year-old captain Dimitri Payet, who has provided more assists (14) than any other Ligue 1 player in 2021.
As for Reims, Fode Doucoure, Marshall Munetsi and Fraser Hornby are all suffering with muscle problems, while Arber Zeneli continues to recover from an ACL injury.
Mathieu Cafaro is doubtful with illness, though he would not be expected to start in centre-midfield anyway ahead of Azor Matusiwa, Moreto Cassama or Dion Lopy.
Centre-back Yunis Abdelhamid and creative midfielder Valon Berisha are both back from one-match suspensions and will be in contention to start, while goalkeeper Predrag Rajkovic – who has registered the most Ligue 1 clean sheets in 2021 (14) – is set to play again between the sticks.
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Saliba, Caleta-Car, Peres; Under, Kamara, Guendouzi, De la Fuente; Gerson; Payet, Milik
Reims possible starting lineup:
Rajkovic, Gravillon, Faes, Abdelhamid; Foket, Lopy, Cassama, Matusiwa, Konan; Toure, Ekitike
We say: Marseille 2-1 Reims
Even though Reims have performed well in recent meetings with Marseille, Wednesday's hosts will be the strong favourites to come away with all three points.
The visitors, who have scored in each of their last six matches, will likely pose a threat in the final third, but Les Phoceens have a much stronger squad which should do enough to secure all three points.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 67.14%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Reims had a probability of 12.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.29%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Reims win it was 0-1 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
