Both teams were officially eliminated from the competition on Thursday, as Les Matinino were hammered 6-1 by the USA, while the Haitians lost 4-1 to Canada.

Match preview

Haiti forward Duckens Nazon on July 7, 2015 © Reuters

In their third successive appearance at this competition, not much has changed for Martinique, making it into the group stage but no further each time, which will be the case again in 2021.

Judging from their results this go-round, it appears that the national program has taken a step back, as this side have struggled to stay with two teams in Canada and the United States who are vastly superior to them on paper, losing 4-1 and 6-1 respectively.

Heading into their final group match, they will want to prove that this tournament was not a complete bust, and they will be eager to pull out at least one victory, something that they have been able to do in each of their previous two Gold Cup appearances in 2019 and 2017.

The focus for manager Mario Bocaly and his team heading into their match against the Americans was to improve their game defensively, but after conceding six goals and allowing 12 shots on target, they clearly need a lot more practice.

Ending their tournament with a match against the Haitians will present them with their best opportunity to claim three points for the first time since their second game of this competition in 2019, but it will not be easy.

After making the semi-finals in 2019, the Haitians had high hopes for another strong showing in 2021, but the dream of duplicating that success came to an end on Thursday.

Jean-Jacques Pierre saw his side start slowly once again, and it cost them as they found themselves trailing Canada after five minutes of play, and they could not recover as their tournament came to a premature end.

The 4-1 scoreline versus the Canucks was perhaps a little unfair as Haiti created several quality scoring opportunities, and they seemed to have their opponents on their heels late into the first half but just like in their opener, that quality in the final third was lacking.

They will hope that they can at least salvage something from this tournament, having never finished a Gold Cup competition without a point in their seven previous appearances.

In three of their four defeats this year, Haiti have conceded inside the first 15 minutes of play, and Les Grenadiers are a different team when trailing, having not won a game from a losing position since their victory over Canada in the quarter-finals of the Gold Cup two years ago.

Martinique CONCACAF Gold Cup form:

Martinique form (all competitions):

Haiti CONCACAF Gold Cup form:

Haiti form (all competitions):

Team News

Martinique changed from a back four to a back three for their match with the United States, and they were burned early and often, as Romario Barthelery was the odd man out in their last fixture.

Gerald Dondon started in midfield, replacing Karl Vitulin, who came on as a substitute, and Johnny Marajo started in attack ahead of Yann Thimon.

Emmanuel Riviere scored for the second match running, while Samuel Camille made his first start since 2019, and it was a forgettable match for the 35-year-old, who scored an own goal to give the US a 2-0 lead.

Defender Francois Dulysse will be out of this match for the Haitians following his expulsion in the 78th minute versus Canada, while 22-year-old Martin Experience played as an attacking midfielder in their last game, moving up from his normal full-back position.

Stephane Lambese scored his first international goal, while Ronaldo Damus and Alex Junior Christian made their first appearances in this competition as substitutes on Thursday.

Martinique possible starting lineup:
Meslien; Burner, Babin, Felicitet, Cretinoir; Jougon, Abaul, Vitulin; Reuperne, Riviere, Fortune

Haiti possible starting lineup:
Duverger; Arcus, Ade, Experience, Christian; Pierre, Clerveaux; Lambese, Etienne, Bissainthe; Damus

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We say: Martinique 1-3 Haiti

One of the few positives from Martinique so far in this competition came as the result of some sloppy Canadian passing, which led to an opening goal for Les Matinino after 10 minutes in their first match, but it has gotten a lot worse for them since then.

Haiti have played two solid matches so far and should be able to find the back of the net more often on Sunday versus a team who have conceded 17 shots on target in their two group matches, allowing 10 goals.

Top tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Martinique win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for Haiti had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Martinique win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Haiti win was 1-2 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.