Minnesota United bring their 2024 Leagues Cup group-stage campaign to an end when they go head to head with Mexican outfit Necaxa at Allianz Field on Tuesday.
Following a 2-0 loss to Seattle Sounders in Saturday's Group F opener, Eric Ramsay's men will need a huge result here if they hope to qualify for the knockout stages for a second consecutive year.
Match preview
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Minnesota United finally stopped the rot in MLS as they picked up a 2-0 victory over league strugglers San Jose Earthquakes when the sides squared off at Allianz Field last Sunday.
The Quakes were made to rue their wasteful display in front of goal as Tanner Beason netted a 38th-minute own goal to gift the hosts the lead before Bongokuhle Hlongwane doubled the lead in the 75th minute.
Minnesota United had failed to taste victory in any of their previous nine league matches, losing seven and claiming two draws while conceding 21 goals and scoring 11 since beating Sporting Kansas City 3-1 on June 2.
Despite their recent struggles in MLS, Ramsay's men remain in the race for post-season football as they currently sit ninth in the Western Conference table, two points above 10th-placed Austin just outside the playoffs qualifying places.
However, Minnesota were sent crashing back to earth on Friday night as they fell to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Seattle Sounders in their 2024 Leagues Cup opener at Lumen Field.
With nothing to separate the sides in the first half, Hassani Dotson's 64th-minute own goal gave the Sounders a numerical advantage and they would make this count later on as Jordan Morris and Paul Rothrock netted in the final seven minutes to hand them all three points.
The Loons enjoyed an impressive Leagues Cup run last season, when they picked up wins over Puebla, Columbus Crew and Toluca en route to the quarter-finals before suffering a heavy 5-0 defeat against eventual runners-up Nashville.
While Minnesota head into Tuesday's clash needing maximum points to keep their hopes of a second consecutive knockout-stage appearance alive, they will need to be at their best at Allianz Field, where they are on a run of three defeats in their last four matches.
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Over in Mexico, Necaxa continue to struggle in the new Liga MX campaign as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Club Leon when the sides squared off at the Estadio Leon last Monday.
In an action-packed contest, Fernando Arce Jr opened his account for the season in the 35th minute to put the visitors in front but Venezuela international Jhonder Cadiz converted his 63rd-minute penalty to hand Leon a deserved point.
Necaxa have now failed to win three of their opening four league games — losing twice and claiming one draw — with an emphatic 4-1 victory over Puebla at the Estadio Victoria on July 14 being the exception.
Head coach Eduardo Fentanes will hope that his side can take the positives from the draw with Leon as they turn their attention to the Leagues Cup where they will be looking to avoid a second-consecutive group-stage exit after losing their two games in Group K last year.
Both defeats came at the hands of MLS sides as Los Rayos were thrashed 3-0 by FC Dallas in the opening game on July 26, four days before suffering a 4-1 loss against Charlotte FC at the Bank of America Stadium.
However, Necaxa head into Monday's game without a win in any of their most recent four away matches, losing three and claiming one draw since scraping a 3-2 victory over Club Tijuana at the Estadio Caliente on April 6.
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Team News
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Minnesota United will have to cope without 26-year-old midfielder Dotson, who is currently suspended after picking up a straight red card against Seattle on Saturday.
On the injury front, the Loons will take to the pitch without the duo of 31-year-old Wil Trapp and defender DJ Taylor, who continue their spells on the sidelines.
Spanish defender Hugo Bacharach returned from a lengthy injury absence against Seattle at the weekend and the 23-year-old could be involved on Tuesday once again.
Meanwhile, Necaxa remain without 21-year-old forward Alek Alvarez, who continues his lengthy spell on the sidelines after picking up a shoulder injury in February.
Other than that, the Mexican side head into Tuesday with a clean bill of health and no suspension concerns, giving Fentanes the luxury of a relatively full-strength squad at his disposal.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Mesanvi, Harvey, Tapias, Bacharach, Rosales; Fragapane, Nyeman, Bran, Hlongwane; Oluwaseyi
Necaxa possible starting lineup:
Unsain; Oliveros, Montes, Alcantar, Gonzalez, Mayorga; Arce, Paradela, Palavecino; Monreal, Rosero
We say: Minnesota United 3-1 Necaxa
Still reeling from their loss to Seattle, we expect Minnesota United to go all out Tuesday as they look to avoid another disappointing Leagues Cup exit. Necaxa have struggled for consistency this season, and given their form on the road, we are backing the MLS side to come away with the desired result.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 56.81%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 21.61% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 1-2 (5.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
Joshua Ojele
