Orlando City can move back into second place in the Eastern Conference with a victory at home to the Chicago Fire on Saturday at Exploria Stadium.
The Lions extended their unbeaten run in league play to four games with a 1-1 draw at Nashville SC on Wednesday, while the Fire saw their four-game unbeaten streak snapped, losing 3-2 to Inter Miami.
Match preview
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Over the past few weeks, Oscar Pareja has been forced to make many half-time adjustments, with his Orlando team having to fight their way back into a match.
His side have conceded the opening goal in three successive games in all competitions, including on Wednesday against the Black-and-Gold, but more often than not, they have been able to pick themselves up and find an equaliser, drawing their last three MLS games, despite trailing in their previous two.
They have been susceptible to the counter in recent weeks, though they seem to grow in confidence as a match rolls along, with over 50% possession in their last four games in all competitions.
After their 5-0 defeat at New York City FC in late July, where they conceded four second-half goals on 15 shots on target, the Lions have been a lot stingier at the back, allowing no more than three shots on goal in their next three league games and only conceding multiple goals once.
Orlando are in a dogfight with Nashville, the Pigeons and the Philadelphia Union for second place in the Eastern Conference, but the Lions do have a game in hand against Philly and the Black-and-Gold.
With their next three fixtures taking place on their home pitch, it will be a real opportunity for them to control their fate and move into second place in the conference.
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The Fire let an opportunity to move up the table slip away on Wednesday, squandering a second-half lead to the Herons, conceding the winning goal in the 93rd minute.
It was a match Chicago seemed to have well in hand, coming back from 1-0 down to take the lead early in the second half before a couple of costly errors saw them come away with nothing.
After the match manager, Raphael Wicky believed that his side beat themselves with a few breakdowns in concentration, which has been a recurring theme for his team throughout the year.
In between their 5-1 loss to Nashville and their 2-1 win against the New York Red Bulls, Chicago gave away many points, squandering a 2-0 lead to draw DC United, losing another two points despite leading Philadelphia and falling 2-1 to Toronto despite firing 14 shots on target.
With their next five fixtures away from home and seven points separating them from a playoff position, there is much ground to make up.
Chicago are one of only two MLS sides who have not won on the road this year, though they have been better of late, narrowly losing to Miami and drawing the Union despite playing the entire second half a man down.
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Team News
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Orlando defender Antonio Carlos notched his second goal of the season on Wednesday, Mauricio Pereyra picked up his team-leading eighth assist of this campaign as he and Junior Urso made their 45th appearance for the club.
The team are still without Sebastian Mendez, Alexandre Pato, Uri Rosell, Nani and Pedro Gallese, who all have lower-body injuries.
Mason Stajduhar made his fourth regular-season start in goal for Orlando, while Pareja made four changes to the starting lineup against Nashville, with Kyle Smith, Silvester van der Water, Joey DeZart and Benji Michel all re-entering the fold.
In their midweek encounter, Francisco Calvo scored his first goal of the season for Chicago, Luka Stojanovic tallied his team-leading seventh goal, along with his second assist and Alvaro Medran made his first appearance since August 4th.
Defensive midfielder Federico Navarro has yet to see the field since being acquired earlier this month from CA Talleres in Argentina, Robert Beric re-entered the starting lineup against Miami, replacing Chinonso Offor, Stanislav Ivanov made his second start for the Fire and Jhon Espinoza was preferred over Boris Sekulic in midfield.
Ignacio Aliseda is still nursing a left shin problem, Javier Casas has a right shin issue and Miguel Navarro came on as a substitute after missing the past few weeks with a right knee injury.
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Stajduhar; Moutinho, Jansson, Carlos, Mas; DeZart, Urso; Schlegel, Pereyra, Van der Water; Akindele
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Calvo, Pineda, Sekulic; Gimenez; Stojanovic, Herbers, Medran, Espinoza; Collier, Beric
We say: Orlando City 2-1 Chicago Fire
The Lions know that the next few weeks will be critical for them to move into a strong position in the Eastern Conference, so we can expect to see them come out very determined to take care of business.
Chicago continue to make unforced errors that have ruined some strong performances, while they have struggled defensively away from home, conceding nine goals in their last three games.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 58.89%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 19.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.86%) and 2-0 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 1-2 (5.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orlando City would win this match.
