Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.17%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 10.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.04%) and 3-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.